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Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 June 2020

[Update 9:45PM EST].  Near the [i] low a day or so ago, Marketwatch headlines were how the market could drop another 7% (yet that would be "healthy" anyway).

Now they extrapolate the lows of the start of the 2009 bull run and project them here after 10 years.

Remember, I don't care what schmuck analyst they got to quote, I do however am curious what the groupthink at MarketWatch project and that's what the headline is really about. Groupthink projection.  And it seems bullish again.

And I like to make fun of their business structure anyway:

1. Watch what market does. I mean literally, their site is called Marketwatch.
2. Get together and decide how we feel and what should we print.
3. Find some schmuck that is feeling like we are, we'll use him as the "cover". Print the Headline!
4. Watch CNBC and repeat what they're saying because we feel the same way too.
5. Run a ticker with mostly schmuck analysts raising and lowering price targets endlessly after the fact.

And they are still bagging on Buffett!

But hey it works. I hear people talking about "why the market does this, or why the market does that", and they usually repeat something they read on yahoo news, Marketwatch, or MSN . Its mind-blowingly prevalent which is why most of them will all lose their 401K money in the end because they have been trained to stay put and they don't know any better. They pay fees to have the "pros" invest when really all they need to do is buy an index fund.  That's all they are really paying for anyway.

Oh, and when the market is crashing guess what else gets crashed? Yeah, try getting into your account or on the phone with someone....LOL! I actually heard someone say, "Oh, I'll just call and sell if I have to!".  Well good luck getting through in a panic. The first plunge to March there were 3 hour waits for TD Ameritrade is one story I know of.

Its not just "elites" who get greedy at the Grand Supercycle top, its everyone.

And everyone will wind up selling before the end, its just a matter of when. Everyone has their breaking point. The market has a way of discovering that.

There are a lot of smart people cashing out though and its uncanny how they find tops to do so usually.  Corporate Vice Presidents on up - those getting mega-stock options - are stashing $ billions away for a rainy day. They see the mood turning and most will be cashing out, retiring and trying to hunker down and lay low.

[UPDATE: 6:20PM EST]  Looking for this also. A double non-confirmation. This is like DOW theory between transports and industrials except we use BIG TECH instead of transports. First a non-confirmation on a large scale, then another non-confirmation on a shorter scale.  Bearish (if it occurs and holds)
Which would finish the revised CRAPPLE count
And this proxy count of LMT, which shows a nice A-B-C.

Not much to add commentary-wise.  Intraday squiggles suggest that if the market gaps up again it will have been from a (b) wave triangle perhaps.

Intermediate wave (2) was 87.3% retrace so far from the March low.  This wave [ii] seems to be just as stubborn. It has retraced 70.8% so far and it may have further to go.
Possible squiggle count. The high of the day was the opening 1 minute candle.
Or another possible stopping point. An extreme retrace for [ii].  Who the heck would buy or short at that spot?  Probably would ensure the least amount shorts active. But there would no doubt be a lot of sellers. 
The alternate count has wave 4 having made its price low. However, perhaps it requires a triangle to chew through the urge to sell at these prices before it can make a move to a higher mark. That makes sense here.  
Showed this a week or so back. It might be a miniature version of what happened before.  We all know sometimes the market rhymes.  Apparent triangle, but ultimate failure. Just be aware. We need an upside surprise to break out of the mess.

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