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Thursday, June 18, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 June 2020 [Update 8PM EST]

[Update 8PM EST:] Triangle on the all-session e-mini futures too with possible post-movement. You can see 5 waves down from peak, then 5 waves up from the bottom, then multi-day triangle. That implies the retrace is going higher.  The gap down is a prime target.

Its a long night so we'll see.
Perhaps the market is trying to hide a triangle.  There is a valid triangle - in price peaks only, not by looks. Its a possible wave (b) of [ii] which implies a pop up tomorrow. I suppose we may find out by what the overnight futures do and what kind of effect they have on the open.
Another look using 15 minute chart.  
Could just be distribution at a lower level. A big gap down would be funny in that regard. Two four-day islands!

Tomorrow is quad witching day and it may actually be quite volatile. (courtesy Zero Hedge)

A pop higher tomorrow might give us a significant double non-confirmation with the NASDAQ.  Since the wedge on the Composite failed as a count, this Composite count below may be the next best count and it requires one more high.
Or even something like this. But whatever, they both imply the same thing.
Of course it could all be for naught. The high on the chart below is the mega-gap open 1st minute candle from Tuesday. It hasn't really been challenged since.  If the [ii] peak is in, then [iii] down is ready and waiting to be unleashed to the downside. We need a solid break beneath "c" then "a". If that happens things could get rolling to the downside very fast.

The alt wave 4 count would likely require a higher pop to look correct to form a [b] wave of a possible wave 4 triangle.
The daily has a clear down channel forming via 5 candles at the top channel, so if we go by this, downside is coming next. A pop up would break this downtrend which would suck because its such a nice "starter" channel.  This channel may be a bearish clue in the overall context of the wave count.  

Starter channels are just that. They form by the first sub wave [i] and [ii]. The acceleration channel (wave [iii] down) would break downward from this at a much steeper angle.  The starter channel is already ominous which it should be if we are on the verge of a cascade event.
Should be fun either way. Our counts are ready.

CPCE. Still very bullish. .50 daily reading. Just incredible.
And the NYSE again.  It has been a (downside) leader in 2020. Non-confirmation at the February peak. It's March 2020 plunge broken underneath 4 of (3). It sits at the 61.8% retrace from its March low at the moment and is in danger of breaking has already broken under its 2010-2020 price channel if it gets further downside. 

It already has overlap with "A" and has rebounded less than other indexes over the last few days. 

And it produced a lower low today.

The venerable stock exchange is getting no love in 2020. It figures, its not the "sexy" hi-beta play. Its been discarded like a used noodle.

But it might be trying to tell us something....

Lower low today. No bullshit triangle formation.





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