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Friday, June 19, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 June 2020 [Update 5:40PM EST]

[UPDATE 5:40 PM EST] Having been making the occasional fun of "Robinhooders", it was meant to be in good fun and perhaps to get them to realize trading can be a serious game with real consequences.  The recent well-publicized suicide due to not understanding the use of leverage is a very tragic thing to have happened.  The fact that the CEO has now come out and acknowledged the tragedy is probably a big-time "sell signal" for not only the Robinhood platform, but perhaps the market as a whole.

My only other comment is that if the CEO(s) went and made numerous changes to the platform (I don't have the app by the way) and/or admitted things needed to be changed (or more safeguards put in place), he is almost publicly admitting they are, at least, partly responsible.  My heart goes out to the family of Alex Kearns.

The Wilshire opened big on Tuesday morning with massive upside internals in an attempt to eventually head back toward the "island" that was sold off last Thursday on heavy down volume in a DJIA 1800 point plunge via a solid 90%+ down day all around. The opening minute candle from Tuesday has stood as the high of the week for the Wilshire. The SPX squeaked out a higher high this morning but the Wilshire did not.

Technically the "starter" downtrend channel is still intact: Wave [ii] label does not need to be moved.  And a red candle today finished lower than yesterday and inside the upper purple down channel line. Its all bearish price action in my humble opinion. But I am biased.

Volume picked up today. Yes it was quad witching day.
Using the SPX chart because it shows all the gaps, there exists a possible second 4-day distribution event just at lower prices than last week.

It makes a bit of fun of Robinhooders and probably gives Wall Street insiders too much credit....but the idea is sound. "Strong hands handing off to weak ones" is a saying that goes back a long time in stock markets. Sometimes you have to step back from the squiggles waves and look at things from different ways. This is one way.

In addition to the topside February plunge breakaway gap, last week's gap down down is still intact.

A mega-gap down cascade event on Monday would complete this chart. Otherwise it may just be bear porn.
The market is a bit fractured as has been pointed out with showing NASDAQ and NYSE the past numerous updates.  One can surmise that even if there was a "wave 5 of (5) to new highs" on the Wilshire (and SPX), many of these other indexes wouldn't make it there.

Which leads me to believe only the Nasdaq was meant to make a new all-time high. Fractured market.
Gold may be on the move finally. It was up today versus a down DOW but NASDAQ was green, so I have no idea if it will sell with all else or temporarily be a shooting star with flames all around.  Or the opposite...or whatever.
The top alternate count of (5) waves to new all-time high is in position, wave-count wise, to produce upside surprise as it would count best today being a wave [ii] low. So once again we have reached a point of maximum absurdity between the bearish counts of a cascading selloff and the bullish counts as they have again reached the point of almost being diametrically opposed.
But again, the NYSE may be leading us lower. Lower low again today and sits less than the 38% Fib from last week's high, a full 7% beneath its peak from last week. Note again, its already overlapped with A.   Its also over 15% from its all-time high (in 2019). Another 5% and it'll quietly be back in bear market territory.

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