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Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 June 2020 [Update 7:40PM EST]

[UPDATE 740PM EST] On the Wilshire, wave (c) was almost exactly a Fibonacci .382 x wave (a) in length. The move up from the low counts nicely as an impulse move. However, it may have only been wave i of (c). In this regard the market, having struggled for over a week to maintain prices, could have one more stab higher to make wave (c) more in tune with wave (a). An extreme would be wave (c) = .618 x (a)

This would make wave [ii] an extreme retrace of around 88%. Wave (2) itself was 87.3% retrace. This is not an easy market, so we need to be prepared wave [ii] retraces in extreme both in price and in time just as its much larger wave (2) has reached an extreme in both price and time.
This would also strike a potential trendline on the Wilshire Daily. This market is stretching everything to the breaking point. It would be disappointing if it didn't try again to stab higher and close the island gap down and take an underside strike at this downtrend line.

Repeating wave two fractals?
Everything that had to happen, happened.

Double non-confirmation (like DOW theory) on the NASDAQ with a nice little potential gravestone doji candle.  Almost exactly double the 2000 peak price. Within 99.14%.
Megaphone pattern?
Wilshire barely squeaked out a higher high from last Tuesday's opening 1 minute candle. But that's all that was required.
VIX count looks possibly completed to its low.
Another day of distribution? The SPX did not make a higher high versus the middle high.
Primary count.
Gold is almost to the minimum count level. It had many surges up during wave (1) down in the markets. Maybe that's what we need - a market crash - and Gold to soar and finish its count.
Possible "blow-off" top in Apple. It surged some 8% in 2 days. We are on the verge of a trade war with China, and Apple has to rely on a Communist country to protect nearly 100% of their hardware assets.  Unbelievable! And built by cheap (some liken to slave) labor. Is this a great stock bubble or what? Does anyone else see the danger of owning Apple or any tech at this stage that relies on China for their hardware (most everyone)? 

If we keep locking down due to the Wu-flu, do you think people are going to be sympathetic to China?  I hear people already complain without any prodding. When a majority gets angry at a country, the government will eventually follow with actions no matter who is in charge.

I cannot fathom a more bearish setup for all of tech than what we have at the moment. China controls almost all hardware production. China unleashes virus to the world.  World is getting tired of China's communist bullshit, (well at least normal people are).  But hey, lets buy Apple and send the Composite above 10K!

If your comfortable, maybe you should pinch yourself hard! But whatever...
Top alternate count (bullish - opposite direction of primary count) is that the market managed to form waves [i]-[ii], (i)-(ii) up and we are ready to see "upside surprise" which will manage to break the back of that nasty 90% down day that has formed the island top. This will likely take an overnight ramp in futures and/or manipulated market announcement timing coming from somewhere such as announcing short selling has been suspended.  Or something like that, you get the idea.

If you live by the Fed, your gonna be looking to the Fed once more. So you'll need an excuse to buy again at these levels.
Top alternate count to new market highs.
I'll probably have more later.

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