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Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 June 2020

Primary count is that Minute wave [iii] of Minor 1 of Intermediate (3) has kicked off today.  Today's low counts as i of (i) of [iii] of 1 of (3).

Trendlines are a tricky thing. Log or non-log? Channel or not channel?  I've learned to give the market the benefit of the doubt when it comes to price channels.  Sometimes you have to keep adjusting them as a result.

Eventually you cannot "tweak" them anymore. We have reached that point with the Wilshire and price action has reinforced that point.

The Wilshire's low today and bounce(s) hugged the main support uptrend channel. Note that it has been "tweaked" as much as possible.
The 6 days of trading in the range has now become significant resistance.  If prices get "ramped" overnight by chance, the primary count of iii of (i) of [iii] down suggests it'll get absolutely hammered back down. There are lots of traders looking to get out I imagine. 
Things got really stretched out but all the subwaves are there.
Notice how the market did not bounce at all today while it was ripping down through this zone.  Every stop got smashed. And those that did not have a stop hope for a bounce back up so they can dump. Well that's my take on it anyways.
Daily volume candles on the Wilshire 5000 is just insane since February. The volume candles have become very useful technical tools.
The alternate count of  5 minor waves up to challenge market highs is in serious danger. The best chance for Minor 4 would be to form a [w]-[x]-[y] combination with a triangle in the final position. But first it would have to regain significant resistance. Its on the verge of losing the lower channel line.  The situation is critical for this count.
Gold has met the minimum for [v] of 5. However, who wouldn't love to see this thing blow sky high like a geyser!  I would have to think it heads toward that trendline. That's about 1880ish. A break under [iv] is very bearish.
I'll have more in a bit.

Ok NYSE still seems to be leading us lower. It closed under the main price channel from 2010 - 2020.
We'll test my VIX theory that after a move higher, it'll "correct" back down by producing a 5 wave pattern. Except this is not an elegant 5 wave nested move...rather its a short, overlapping falling wedge - in Elliott Wave terms this is called an ending diagonal triangle - complete with underthrow. This is a bullish VIX pattern, the next VIX move should be higher for falling wedges which implies market move down.

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