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Monday, June 29, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 June 2020 [Update 8:50PM EST]

[UPDATE 8:50PM EST]  Here is the chart from the 7:50 update zoomed in. Lots of thing going on tomorrow. End of month, end of quarter, and a potential meeting point for it all.

Could be the greatest call(s) evah, or just more bear porn.  Either way this chart was too good not to post. Too many things happening. The guys at Goldman and the New York Fed might see this tonight and say, "nah, screw it, we can't handle that, just dump it all now."
[UPDATE 7:55PM EST] Ok, this is why you keep peeking at this blog. Its quality charts like this! The market may be testing four resistance lines and an open breakaway gap all at the same moment.

This should occur in the morning is where everything meets. Say, 11ish...

Hey what better way to assert yourself than to destroy all resistance at once? If its going to happen, tomorrow is lining up to be quite the day either way.  I'll say this, if this resistance matrix cannot hold, then the market deserves to go higher, it will have earned it.

[UPDATE 7:20PM EST] They tacked on some data on the VIX for some reason I didn't get at the end of day. Updated VIX chart and count. VIX prices are already into the VIX gap, but not closed all the way. It probably shouldn't go lower than 29.98, the previous VIX recovery low, or there is something else going on.

It did finish lower than (iii) on the VIX count. We'll see what overnight brings. It suggests a gap up open tomorrow that holds and runs higher to resistance. This resistance is formidable. The price channel line is formidable. Prices may go above it for a while (much like Intermediate (2) has been above the 2010 - 2020 price channel), but they should eventually puke back down. This market is like the Terminator. Just keeps coming at you.
Or it really is just a bunch of (a)-(b)-(c)'s (like the market) and it capitulated at the end of day thrust out of a triangle. Nah, market isn't going down easy. I fully expect the 1st VIX count above to continue playing out.
[UPDATE 6:30pm EST] Just seen via Marketwatch. Curious they post a race analogy picture of the market(s). And the NASDAQ may have had its first day that showed weakness (see volume candle on chart further down).

This is very bullish market sentiment and very bullish NASDAQ sentiment.  This is a very comfortable position to trumpet out to your readers. And this is after the NASDAQ is now nearly 400 points from its intraday high. So the first day NASDAQ may = weakness is the very day MarketWatch trumpets a picture showing its racing strength against all other indexes. Very curious.

NASDAQ made new highs and its been since February since other indexes of significance did the same.  This is not bullish in my opinion.

Today's end of day burst high could have counted as Minuscule wave C of Submicro (Y) of Micro [2] of Subminuette iii of Minuette (i) of Minute [iii] of Minor 1 of Intermediate (3) or (C) of Primary [1] or [A] of Cycle a or w of Supercycle [a] or [w] of Grand Supercycle [IV].

How's that for a count? That implies it all falls apart tomorrow. (Lol!)
The green price channel has yet to be backtested. If its coming, it will likely gap up open tomorrow to do so.

To me, it looks like distribution from three distinct price levels. 4 days at the top, 6 days at the middle between (a) and (b) of [ii], and now going on 5 days at the next lower level between i and ii of [iii]. Viewed in that light, the next move should be a big break lower (after ii has a confirmed peak) in iii of (i) of [iii] and then they'll distribute some more at (i) and (ii) of [iii].  Just a hunch...

In the meantime, JP Morgan, GS, Morgan Stanley, and the usual crew will have everything "upgraded" and on a buy recommendation. lol!
The Wilshire is shown underneath showing a possible gap open for wave [C] - 5 waves - or wave [Y] - 3 waves - of wave ii.

VIX theory is holding up somewhat. Stretching the rules, but the only requirement on this chart is that (v) VIX price is lower than (iii) VIX price.
Another look. Today's bum rush high at the end may be [2]. This implies yet another breakaway gap down is coming tomorrow.  Our counts are ready either way.  However, again, the price channel may require a strong backtest. This would imply wave ii (and not [2]) is still finishing out.

Strong horizontal resistance shown on the red line. Couple that with price channel resistance.
Now that Wilshire volume (total market) has exploded, its actually possible to do simple volume candle technical analysis that can either aid or refute the overall wave count.  In all ways so far, it has been aiding the count(s).

A proper analysis of today's volume candle is that volume was not enough to overcome the previous day's volume candle.  Even though market prices advanced nicely, volume betrays the move (as of now). This suggests a corrective "up". If prices are to recapture lost support, tomorrow will likely require a bigger "green" candle than the red candle that took prices beneath both horizontal and price channel support.

This is the kind of data that would support (or refute) the idea of a Minor wave 4 is playing out. Simply put, if Minor 4 is playing out, it likely needs a very big green volume candle to assert itself.  Tomorrow would be a good day to do it if you have Minor 4 as your primary count.
Look at the NASDAQ volume candle.  Very little interest to accumulate.  NASDAQ might be finally showing some leadership to the downside. UPDATED CHART - was missing data. Volume candle is not as small.

And the SPX. Despite the up day, we had a lower low this morning and a lower high at end of day.  The candle(s) are walking downward. Its the same on the DJIA despite the 580 point up day.
And finally total market volume, weekly. Again, just ask yourself what's going on here?
And if Wilshire finishes tomorrow at 30,874, the monthly candle will be a huge DOJI.  (It opened at 30,874 on June 1st) That would suggest an up open tomorrow, eventual reversal and a close well beneath horizontal support.

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