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Friday, June 5, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 June 2020 [Update 9:15 PM EST]

[Update 9:15 PM EST] Daily volume bars came in for Wilshire and Nasdaq, they are quite elevated (Nasdaq all-time high volume, Wilshire #2) which supports the count that we may be near wave (2) high and that the Composite is in a finishing wedge which it sure looks like. I am only reporting what I am seeing.

Or the volume bars could just keep growing into freaking monsters. I don't know anymore than you, just trying to navigate the bullshit, avoid the riots, and make sure I wear my mask in the store so I don't offend anyone.
CPCE. Yes, usually one expects small divergences versus prices when these indicator extremes get reached.  I used this trick earlier this week and it didn't work. I had the divergence matched with an extreme and a solid wave count to support wave (2) peak.

Divergences occurs because some of the smart money backs off a bit prior to prices turning. Not everyone gets caught on the wrong side all at once.....I don't think I can actually find any examples where the price extreme perfectly matched the CPCE extreme.

But this market is like no other so we can only guess that everyone is going to be a winner here....

There really is no divergence except a tiny 3 day divergence in the daily (purple) reading.  It all looks like a falling wedge with overthrow and no one is backing off the bet yet.

Its been a weird few months. A max limit gap down would catch everyone on the wrong side of this. I am still amazed at how traders can go into a weekend this confident everything will continue rosy on Monday. 

The market is again setup for a massive fall in prices. That is the primary count.  I cannot believe all the longs going into the weekend.  We are living in a modern version of "Tulip Mania".

Its curious how the Wilshire printed a gap up on Stockcharts. I don't know why sometimes this happens and sometimes not. Its probably due to nefarious reasons. Today it printed a gap.

We are setup for an island top if we get the massive gap down.
The NASDAQ Composite new all-time high today. Massive divergence with the rest of the market exists.

However if we have "overthrow" we should ideally have only 1 daily candle sticking through the top of the wedge. This implies an unfilled gap down Monday should follow.
If today was the peak of C, it came within 38 Wilshire points from a perfect C = .618 xA.

Today's high was C = .613 x A. Pretty darn close. Blue virgin space needs closing almost immediately for the count to be correct.
The top alternate count. When I first showed the top long term alternate count back on May 22, the channel suggested it would be a rocket shot to the top. So far that has been the case.

And we had the upside surprise(s).

This chart actually looks more elegant than my other weekly above.
I'll have more to show later.

President Trump kind of took a victory lap today, and that may be a contrarian indicator that (2) has topped. But again, that's not an unusual thing for him to do, so probably means nothing.

Our Tulip Mania marches on.

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