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Friday, July 17, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 July 2020

This blog posted a special post last night showing the possibility of another surge up to form the final wave [v] of 5 of (5) on the SPX/Wilshire5000 in a failed effort to reach new all time highs. Although Monday may still be the perfect day to achieve this via gap up, I have my doubts...

Today I was tracking the Wilshire 5000 very closely, after all, this is the index this blog primarily charts.

Check this out. The comments on the chart speak for themselves.
I'll have more later.

Ok, here is more. This MACD weekly trick and yet another possible non-confirmation I got via a blog reader in Hungary. Hat tip to you!

Weekly MACD lines finally both reached the zero line this week on SPX/Wilshire. The DOW has not confirmed with either of its lines.

Plus there exists negative divergence on the Wilshire RSI. Highest weekly close since the March low, yet loss of momentum. It's not much, but in a rebound wave such as this sometimes this is all it takes. 
Going with this as primary count. If wrong, well so be it, won't be the first time. Loss of momentum on the hourly exists in the RSI.
NYSE count. Closed its island gap today.
CPCE. Daily "trigger" still in place now joined by the 3 day MA having crossed up over the 5 and 10 Day Moving averages.

The way to crush these extreme positions in calls would be to open Monday with a massive gap down rather than be rewarded with a gap up. The market movers are probably loaded with puts which may be moving the needles. The Robinhooders...not. Just saying, food for thought.
The 30 day has not been crossed over. Amazing considering its historical low position.
Faded for effect.
NASDAQ 100 total volume ratio to Composite total volume ratio reached a new extreme today.  If my math is correct, this implies the 100 volume ratio is down to only 36% of the total volume of the Composite.  There is a massive effort to keep the rest of the Composite elevated.....
For effect, here is the same thing:
And the comparison of the NYSE total volume to the Composite and SPX total volume. The SPX ratio is shown in reverse.  But its like the Titanic slowly sinking and they try and divert all the bilge pumps to the NASDAQ compartment because that's where they think the most danger is.  

These extreme ratios all over the place are probably telling a bearish story. The story is the market is taking on water and the bilge pumps are ready to overheat, breakdown and stop pumping. 

These show extreme liquidity problems in my opinion in the market. If flow stops, the hole created underneath prices is glaring. I mean haven't we already seen how the markets can violently lose prices in only 25 days in 2020 already? Have people forgot that or do you feel comfortable again?
Composite weekly finished under the upper green containment channel line.

Wow look at the ratios on the bottom of the chart! This is like you are sitting at the water pumping station and your differential volume meter is pegging and sounding an alarm that the piping is either clogged, leaking or both. The idiot technician (The Fed) silences the alarm and keeps on pumping regardless because they have no maintenance crew that knows how to fix the leaky and decrepit piping network (gross misallocation of $$ to "zombie" companies + insane valuations) anyway. But to do a proper repair, they need to shut the flow down and the bosses said keep pumping!

So they keep pumping anyway!  

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