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Monday, July 27, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 July 2020

The NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 both have retraced their respective drops from highs a little over 50%.  The primary count is that wave (ii) peak is forming and if this is the case, a turn lower should likely occur tomorrow at the latest in wave (iii) down.
Best guess squiggle using the Composite if we gap up again. 
The alternate is that they are not in wave (ii) up, they are both in their final pushes to another high. Or at least the Composite is. It would be wave [v] of 5 of (5) in the Composite and wave (v) of [c] of Y of (2) in the Wilshire 5000.

Perhaps the Composite makes a new high and the Wilshire doesn't in the alternate counts. But as was suggested last week, the 2020 market isn't finished until the Composite puts in its final high wherever that may be.
Another view of the Wilshire and a possible backtest of the wedge. Prices "gave up" the lower blue price channel line. Now lets see if it "gives up" the lower wedgeline.
Give the blog some credit, have been steady on Gold the past many months. Although it had a hard time through the pandemic, it held together in a countable count.  It seems it wants that $2000 price. So we'll count it as if that's where its headed.

How about $2020 to match this crazy year? Only fitting yes?

Long term count is now an expanded flat of some sort.
Daily. Busted over the line.
Here is the all-session. Reconfigured just a bit to keep it somewhat simple. It matches the Daily above.

Starting from green [iv] lower left hand corner.

Best guess is we have a few more squiggles to go and since this is a commodity, it can have blow-off tops in an extended wave [v] of 5 which appears to be the case.

I'll go with $2020 upside target because again, it only seems fitting if you know what I mean.
And dollar under the support line.

Here is what may occur: Stock market crash along with gold.  Selling everything into dollars makes the dollar a winner.

But we need a top in the stock market and gold.
Silver's count adjusted to match that of Gold's expected squiggles.  $26 - $27 as a target range at least but if it blows off probably higher.

So in Gold we are looking for top of (iii) of [v] of 5.

Silver looking for top of [v] of 3 of 5.  They therefore have the same expected squiggle gyrations in each count.

SPX daily.  Backtesting wedge?  Probably the last day for this wedge count would be tomorrow. Prices either break down completely and verify that the wedge was real, or not.
CPCE. 30 day ticked down to its lowest ever probably. It's taking into account all the early weeks of July. Big daily u-turn back lower today.
Our ratios chart again. Ticking back upwards as expected. The NYSE ratio is persistently high. The Composite is still getting all the attention. Robinhooders are still bidding it and the market makers are front running it and amplifying the signals, thus moving the markets.  The computers will keep doing it until there is not enough left to keep moving the bids.  Once the market turns (because the spoofing  algorithms no longer results in up moves or someone dumps very large market orders that collapses major support), the computers will start price pushing to the downside.  And then the market making herd and all their computers, (which by the way those algorithms also start to stall to the upside), will all follow to the downside.

If wave (iii) down is tomorrow, then we will have reached that spot. If not we probably are headed to another Composite peak.

But we are getting closer either way.

All the while there is certainly stock dumping going on. Insiders are selling like crazy. This is the "summer of getting out".  Now if only those millions of people in the middle class on verge of retiring with fat 401K's would consider easing up their amount of risk. But they won't. They are more illiquid than the day traders. They have largely signed over the "management" of their accounts to the "pros".

Which means good luck getting through on a phone in a panic. 

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