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Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 July 2020

[UPDATE 8:25PM EST]
Gold higher highs. There are enough minimum waves in place to consider the count as complete however let it run out to where it may. Gap up in A/H's.  Remember these are Gold futures (Dec 2020).
ORIGINAL POST
Primary count is wave (ii) peaked today in the Wilshire 5000, tomorrow should bring blahblahblahblah. Whatever.

This market wears you out. And when you step back and realize what you are potentially counting, its staggering to think of.  If (2) has peaked, that implies the quest for Grand Supercycle [III] is over.

And that is a 240+ year rise. So you can see why it refuses to give way. You can see why the (2) count will take us to the bitter end of the debt bubble.  Congress is ready to dump another $1.5 Trillion in our laps for good measure. Will it do anything except seal the fate of the biggest debt bubble in the history of mankind? Issuing credit upon credit? Pushing on strings? There is a reason German 10 year bonds are trading negative...no one wants or can take on any more debt! Sure the bonds get bought but who is taking out loans to spur new economic activity? Anyone starting a real business other than another stupid freaking app or another way to sell more cheap junk we don't need?

The market already carved out a new high in the NASDAQ Composite, but its been since February where every other index refuses to follow so far.

So we are patient regardless. Don't even care about the alternate counts. The alternate counts are thus: Wave (2) ain't over. See? That was easy! (actually nothing changed from yesterday so see that post)
Log scale. It may have peeled away from the lower wedge line, or it may decide it  wants to hug it some more tomorrow or maybe gap up over just for good measure. Wave (2) maybe wants to live forever (but it cannot).

What's that market saying? "A kid and his ruler?". Arithmetic scale. Same result.
GOLD AND SILVER

Hopefully we get another blast up on both. Rooting for ya's!
CPCE and RATIOS charts
We'll keep posting these until its no longer interesting or useful.

CPCE. 10 Day average still hovering under the 30 day.  Tightening pack at the moment.
But today ended with 2 calls bought for every 1 put. This is still very bullish considering a red down day all around and the Composite down 1.27%.
Ratio charts.  Composite:100 ratio ticking way up again. Composite:NYSE is permanently high it seems.







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