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Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 July 2020

The Wilshire 5000 (and SPX) seem hell bent on closing the February gap down.  The market is showing signs of extreme exhaustion, perhaps the biggest ever created in the history of stocks.

So tonight, we'll start things off by reposting the top alternate count(s).

TOP ALTERNATE COUNTS
Biggest, raggediest, ending diagonal triangle in the Wilshire you may ever see if it comes to fruition. The wave action is no longer crisp in the up moves. They are practically on a forced march being pushed by the computers and the hype of it all.

Would likely close out the week near the high in this count. In fact, closing out the month of July near the high.
And a clearer picture of just the Wilshire.

PRIMARY COUNTS
However, first things, first. The market deemed this line important as prices continue to gravitate toward it.  That explains the midday jump upwards. 

Arithmetic scale from afar:
And now the log scale showing the lower wedgeline which is practically the same line shown  in the arithmetic scale chart above. Prices keep hugging the under side.
Therefore is this is wave (ii), its a great place to stop or nearly so!
Well that's it for now, checking out gold and stuff....

GOLD
Best guess squiggles. $2020 is the minimum target.
Yet another way to view the trendline that the Wilshire is hugging underneath. And this one we threw the 5 wave count back on it (regardless the count, it may be forming a new wedge)

If we do get a gap up and further effort to close the February gap down, this would probably be an acceptable way to label it as a failed 5th wave (because I still don't believe we are going to get new all-time highs in the Wilshire) considering it would be within 2% or so....
CPCE and RATIOS
CPCE. Very tight grouping at the moment of the Daily, 3, 5, 10, and 30 which is probably relatively a rare situation. 10 day still under the 30 and the 3 day plunged back under the 30. The HFT machines are probably confused.

Its like the moving averages are all have a meeting and saying "which way should we go boys?"

By this time (peak +6) in February, the route was on and the NASDAQ Composite was 13% lower. Now we are back within 3% of the Composite highs. To catch up to the February pattern, the Composite will have to plunge around 10% here in a day or so. Not saying its going to happen, just stating that's what it would take.
Ratios eased up today. KODAK (NYSE) was the insane story stock today. NYSE is trying to tag its own open gap down from its June peak.
The VIX may be in a descending triangle situation which is bearish for VIX prices. The final result is a thrust under, possibly to pierce the gap and run stops resulting in one of those mega-VIX spikes.

To break this descending pattern the VIX needs to head to 30 pronto.




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