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Thursday, July 30, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 July 2020

Elliott Wave logic is thus:

1. If wave (2) peaked, then the market may be in the death throes of giving up the Grand Supercycle chase. It is reluctant, it struggles.

2. If wave (ii) peaked, it may be just as stubborn as its much larger cousin wave (2).

Something cool anyway, quick, which is which?
Regardless the counts is that Intermediate wave (2) has peaked and the first small squiggle wave (ii) has peaked or is peaking.

As stated above, the first squiggle wave (ii), a very tiny, tiny wave two in the scheme of things, may be just as stubborn as the Intermediate sized (or Primary as EWI has it).  So, we'll count it as such until it proves otherwise. 
Alternate count(s) is that wave (2) still has kick in it but will finish things soon.  
Some interesting lines and intersections. Algorithms work in a lot of ways just by finding a trendline (or price channel) and testing it for support or resistance. 

Computer --- prices hit trendline = BUY MODE = EXECUTE! = Sustainable? Spoof and frontrun!

Find new trendline -- prices hit - BUY MODE = EXECUTE! = Spoof and frontrun!

Cannot find new trendline - BUY MODE sustainable? = No!, SELL (spoof to the downside - FLASHCRASH!) until prices find a new trendline!

I think we give these things way too much credit, that's probably in a nutshell how they work. Remember these things were designed by kids with rulers (scales for you engineering types).

Since June 8th that has been largely happening. Computers finding a lower channel or price line and following it. When it can't be followed anymore they found others. There are not many support lines left though.
Ok, a bunch of FANGGGLE (whatever they are) stocks just reported. What if that's all this market has got? I mean ok, e-minis are up 1/2% at 6:24PM, but what if that's all they got?

Who buys these things after a 4 month 50% run-up in post earnings afterhours? Wouldn't you at least buy a few days prior if you're gambling its going to pop?

4 - 1 stock split? Is that the ultimate hubris of Apple? Why else to split the stock other than you want it to go up more or expect it to?  I just think the A/H's runup is more a bearish sign of overexuberance exhaustion move rather than anything else.


It's probably the last possible price channel line from the March lows. I gave it the ol' [w]-[x]-[y] formation with a triangle in the final position to mark an especially long-winded wave 4. You know how triangles like to reform if they can. Well it's a valid count so now or never Mr. Market!
 A closer look at the above. So many interesting ways to connect these patterns since the March low. The final act is ready to play out either way! Its exciting yes?

I know I throw a lot of counts out here, but that's what this blog is about counting waves. If there are numerous ways to connect the patterns so be it.

However they all basically show the same thing. Either wave (2) is ended, will end soon or wave 5 will attempt new market highs and that will fail, or maybe be successful. 

The final act is almost upon us. It's almost August and the narrow window for rally is closing fast!!
There are enough waves in place to consider GOLD count finished. The expected $2000 price hasn't come yet and that's what happened 10 years ago also.

But I'm rooting for it! I guess it depends on the overall market, 

Finally all the moving averages on this chart has crossed over the 30 day MA. All are pointing up. 
VIX tried to escape the bearish pattern but just couldn't, at least not today.
Keep your eye on the DAX in the morning. It had a wedge pattern and prices have broken down sharply.  There is no more trendlines to catch that are apparent.  Price low might be (i) down today so maybe it'll bounce in (ii) up.
French CAC also broke down noticeably. Maybe its a wave (i) low and it'll bounce for wave (ii).

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