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Monday, July 6, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 July 2020

In case you missed the last post on the NASDAQ, I suggest you read it first.  If we can find the top of the NASDAQ this should conclude the festivities for the 2020 market.  I found the count finally in the NASDAQ this weekend (I strongly believe) and that is guiding us to the peak.

First let me preface this by saying there are certainly enough wave squiggles in place to consider the count over. However, Its never that easy and besides the NASDAQ doesn't look quite finished....

The main themes fleshed out over the weekend post are thus:

1. The NASDAQ Composite will likely hit its Minor 1 and [b] of 4 trendline in LOG scale, perhaps twice ([iii] and [v] of 5 peaks). That has not occurred yet. It did hit in arithmetic scale today.

2. There is a powerful double Fibonacci relationship between waves 3 and 5. The tight range is 10,595 - 10,601.

3. This price range intersects the upper channel line sometime this Thursday likely.

4. When the NASDAQ count is over, the market is over. That's the theory. Wave (3) down in the Wilshire would commence.

5. Wilshire and DOW June 8th highs HOLD in the event the NASDAQ peaks at 10,601. DOW and NYSE island top(s) may hold intact also. SPX likely hits 3200+.

6. The market is narrowing extremely into the NASDAQ only. I displayed some weekend charts showing the internal volume ratios between major indexes.  This is extremely bearish in the context of the current market and Elliott Wave count.
Current Primary count of the NASDAQ shows the primary count of the Wiilshire on the lower half of the chart. Exciting stuff!
The current NASDAQ all-sessions e-minis. This is helping with the count.
I would expect the NASDAQ to hit and perhaps  poke through the upper green containment line!
Top of the green line this week is around 10,525. 10,600 would poke through the top which hasn't been done the entire 10 years of these trendlines. But I expect it will here.
 I'll have more.

Ok here's more:
A close look at wave (5)'s sister wave (1) in 2010.
And now of 5 of (1) itself. Things seem to be rhyming. And afterall, the waves are directly related and they both rebounded off of hard lows so they behaved quite similarly so far.
Best guess is VIX will break (briefly) lower in the end to the lowest low since the March market bottom and break under the UP trendline it had going for many months.
After finding the NASDAQ count this weekned, reevaluated a lot of stock counts based on that. Here is Tesla. Make a chart, form the triangle. The crossover might find the peak. Almost there!

I know there are a lot of big name shorts on this stock. Show them this chart.
Revamped Apple count based on NASDAQ count. Everything aligns better.
Best guess for GOLD at the moment. Its getting close I believe to shooting higher in (iii) of [v] of 5
Updated all-sessions NASDAQ mini. 5 minimum waves to [iii]. Currently, the time frame suggests a Wednesday peak, not Thursday.
These show the narrowness of the market.
Elliott Wave International reported back to back 90% Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) via Sentiment Trader bullishness on the NASDAQ. It likely rose again after today.  These are rare readings.

And your getting them at the top of a 10 year trendline, not the bottom!

The SPX:NASDAQ ratio is setting daily records as is the NYSE:NASDAQ.

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