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Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 July 2020

The NASDAQ has parked itself near the upper containment weekly channel line. Prices are poised to gap up and over - if it so chooses -  which is probably the only way it could have been done.
Zoomed in:
There is a 3rd Fibonacci relationship I failed to mention. Wave [iii] + [v] of 5 = .618 x wave [i] of 5 @ 10,594.8.  This makes a triple Fibonacci cluster within 6.2 points which is pretty powerful. And it likely resides at the 1 and [b]of 4 and 5 channel line. I added it to the chart:
 The squiggle count. Setup for a gap up. Again at the mercy of the futures again, but we got the job done today huh?
I'll have more and as usual, will just keep adding it as we go.

Current all-session NASDAQ e-minis. They tested the green horizontal support 4 times.
Gold looks like its breaking upwards finally in (iii) of [v] of 5.
All-session Gold. Its a best guess count based on looking at the daily above.
Tomorrow is bullish 50/200 crossover day on the Wilshire 5000 and SPX. Unless they end the day max limit sell for the daily by blowing multiple circuit breakers down, I assume tomorrow they will cross regardless.
NASDAQ 2 hour. It's about 1% below our ideal target range.  Not sure where that puts the Wilshire 5000's price. I am assuming I'll have to move [ii] peak.
I have no idea whats going to happen with the VIX. Everything is at a maximum one way or another in either wave counts, or trendlines or DMA crossovers, or sentiment. Its the perfect storm either way I guess.

Does the NASDAQ peak and rollover and the rest of the market holds it together for the next few months? That's one possibility I suppose. There is no crystal ball, just Elliott Wave probabilities.
I got to remind myself that the current wave pattern currently acceptable as a 5 of (5) peak. After all, every index made a nice impulse 5 wave move from yesterday's peak.

It channels better for sure. In this case it tests the weekly upper containment line again, makes a modest lower high less than 10,519, and reverses and sells off.
Young military members are all into the stock craze. They all laugh and suggest making money is easy.  Anyone who is not trading is "dumb".

I know this firsthand. I have a connection who keeps me posted on things.

CPCE printed a .40 today! That's the lowest since the .37 print on the June 8th peak. The 3 and 5 day moving averages have plunged under the complacency line yet again. Very aggressive betting!
And for good measure the 30 day moving average ticked lower again today.  The peak of (1) in 2010 had a lower 30 day line and a daily print recorded was .32.
A closer look at exactly where the low CPCE readings in 2010-2011 occurred in the context of Wave (5)'s sister wave (1).
And today's CPCE using the current NASDAQ count. Very similar setup. Low CPCE daily reading near the top of a wave 3.  Now you have to remember, back in 2009, 2010, ALL major indexes were moving up together and confirming each other. That's currently not the case (not yet anyway)!

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