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Thursday, July 9, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 July 2020 [Update 6:15PM EST]

[Update 615 PM EST]
The Composite has been hiding its channeling where waves 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 (any degree) connect on a channel or at least 1, 3, and 2, 4. (of any degree) or using an [a] or [b] wave within a corrective.

There is still room for a channel and a (v) wave move to our ideal Fibonacci range tomorrow morning.

Something screwy like this.  Again, unorthodox but follows rules and guidelines ok.

And do you like how the blue wedge lines were tacked on there? See dat?
The above could be labeled like this too. Rising wedge. Satisfying an Elliott Wave pattern, maintaining channeling guidelines, and hitting our ideal Fibonacci range. Then sell off for Freaky Friday.

I would suspect no other index is able to follow to any kind of pivot highs. This would be NASDAQ all on its own for about an hour or so. Say 10:30, which was my original projection time from my weekend NASDAQ post.
And the Composite daily. The craze has peaked. Volume ratios are waning.  And that's to be expected because volume is picking up on the sell side of the other indexes. Another good reason to root for a Friday peak is the uncanny compression going on.

The NASDAQ Composite's high today was 17 points from our ideal Fibonacci cluster of 10,594.8 - 10,601 range.

There are enough squiggles to complete the pattern as is. There is obviously room for one more squiggle to our target range first thing tomorrow. Again, for the third night, this would be subject to the whims of the overnight futures.

The NASDAQ Composite internals were horrible.   Decliners outpaced advancers by a ratio of 2.44:1. Volume was a 50/50 split between up volume and down volume.

And as happened at the peak of 3, the divergence between indexes was pronounced. The Wilshire has been making lower lows as is most every other index.
Fractured market.
This week's trading has done nothing to dampen the bearish outlook.
NASDAQ minis has a possible completed pattern also connecting on a channel.
Proposed wave 5 complete or nearly so.
Best guess count for the Wilshire is a small series of i-ii, [1]-[2] down. This is what occurred at the wave C peak while the NASDAQ diverged and kept making higher highs.
LOG scale. Then the 1 hour will be in arithmetic.
The hourly has slightly different touch points because its non-log scale. It uses both [a] and [b] of 4 l. But it has at least 2 trendline strikes last few days which is better than one.
Weekly zoomed in. Closed at about the upper containment line. maybe they try and gap it up over again to reach our ideal target?
I was going to show the Apple chart last night and was wondering if it would hit its upper channel line. I guess the question was answered.

I can't believe Warren Buffett has 47% of his Portfolio in Apple - A corporation who's success and failure is completely beholden to a Communist country (Um yeah, China)! - much like every other tech....

Portney was right. He is a dumbass.
Who keeps buying Apple? Oh yeah, Warren, that other rich guy they mentioned, and the ROBINHOODERS!

I got Gold in a series of ones and twos. So we are close to liftoff I suppose. Best guess.
Again, it seems to be steadily rising building momentum in a base channel almost to the acceleration channel up.
LMT, our proxy stock for the humongous defense industry. It just took out it's B wave low. This sector is a downside leader!
The much-anticipated 50/200 bullish crossover.  SPX did too.
Ok, have more later when data starts coming in.

Ok NYSE. This peaked like first few minutes Monday on the gap up. 
Best guess on the Dollar is its headed to the support trendline.  A huge ascending triangle, Watch for extreme bearish sentiment on the dollar as it approaches the line. The usual "dollar is worthless" stories.  Some day in the distant future it will indeed fulfill that legacy, but for now, it likely will be the grand champion of the proposed coming bear market. 

After all the other worthless paper, every bond, every IOU, every derivative of a derivative on this earth is exhausted (and converted to dollars), then the dollar will be the last worthless paper standing.  May King Dollar live on!  Only then will everyone realize the Emperor has no clothes either.
Possible squiggles.  Note the heavy trading internals.
This might be the best count for the 10 year yield. Or the triangle. But it may be forming a small series of ones' and twos' down also.
GDOW in a precarious technical position. Under its multi-year trendline after punching above it briefly.

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