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Thursday, August 6, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 August 2020 [Update 8:15 PM EST]

 [Update 8:15 PM EST] Posting what may be the most important charts up top here.
The top variation of the squiggles on the NDX and Wilshire (and SPX), will take the Wilshire and SPX very close to their all-time highs, likely sometime early next week. Maybe on the V.P. pick announcement day or whatever.  I don't think the market cares about the news for the last stimulus, its already stimulated quite well enough.   That news will be sold, or likely Congress will drags its feet and as the market is selling hard they'll get their shit together and throw another $2.7 Trillion like its monopoly money. And then it'll sell hard again anyway.  Peak debt bubble will finally burst.

This supposes perhaps a gap down tomorrow on unemployment numbers day and then a rally to cover the gap and finish week near the high (yet again??). Continuation next week to try and make new all-time highs in the Wilshire and SPX which I am rooting for at this stage.  But it will be close. 
That further push exactly aligns with taking the NDX up to its upper channel line sometime next mid-week. The upper price channel line is probably like a magnet at this stage.
34,616.78 Intraday all-time high.
34,533.94 Daily closing all-time high.
34,428.34 Weekly all-time closing high.

Today's intraday high: 
34,276.63  - a mere .98% from the all-time intraday.

And I still don't think we'll get there!
And you know why? Because now that the market is so very close, I want it so very badly to get there and I never seem to get what I want.

Couldn't care less about the DOW. Couldn't care less about NYSE, small caps, big caps, mid caps, bottlecaps, or any of that stuff. I don't even care about the SPX. 

But I want the Wilshire to make a new squiggly all-time high cause that's what this blog counts.

Which means it probably will never happen. You can almost take that to the bank.

Just going to keep tacking things on today as we go along here as usual so check back often!

COUNTS
NASDAQ 100. Wave 5 = .618 x wave 3 @ 11,290. Today's high was 11,282.2. That's works out to a ratio of .613 x 3. Pretty close but we have room for one more small hump up to 11,290.

Everything should be now in "alignment". I have the NASDAQ and WILSHIRE matching squiggle for squiggle at this stage. 
E-minis popped over its wedge. If it has meaning, prices should collapse, yada yada yada.
Gold is getting very close.
DOW Theory.

The June high for the Industrials was also a closing high by the way. Now lets say the Industrials fail to make a higher high. This does not actually "trigger" a sell signal, it merely sets everything up.  The DOW THEORY sell signal would be officially triggered when both indexes take out their recent June lows together confirming the bear market once again as in their all-time high non-confirmations. 

But one who believes in DOW theory can use this chart to begin "selling" the Industrials (or transports or both) because the "stop" is just above the June high anyway if its not successful.
There is yet another unclosed gap from the 20th of February.
CPCE
30 Day has never been lower

INTRADAY
 Lets see if 11,280 has any meaning  Doublechecking work, its 11,290 is .618 x 3 = 5
Apple broke up out of the triangle.


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