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Saturday, August 1, 2020

Weekend Charts and Stuff

UPDATED (REFINED) WILSHIRE COUNTS
Friday's update presented 3 Wilshire counts. The first has the peak having occurred. However, looking at the counts a bit more, I went and tweaked counts 2 and 3.

The ending diagonal triangle of count 2 doesn't really work per se as a count. In the end it would still convey wave weakness but I like to think the market plays by Elliott Wave rules as much as possible.

The past week or so the market has struggled in sloppy waves and it reminds one of a triangle.  And that triangle may not yet be quite done.

This count refines count 2 and has wave e of (iv) finishing higher than wave (i) as per Elliott Wave rule.
This implies immediate Monday weakness. The price low of wave "e" would have to be no lower than 33,050.

This count implies an "e" wave Monday low and then five small waves to [c] of Y of (2).  Likely Wednesday or Thursday peak although the only thing required is a new high. Looking for the gap to stay open at least a little.  One thing about the open gap down from February is that I don't using the closing price of the day that produced the gap, I merely use the chart gap that uses the low of the...well you'll figure it out.
The next count refines count 3 presented Friday.  This changes the wave 4 low to a more logical spot. But either way, these refined counts pretty much all imply the same things as the other ways to count.  
And a closer look at the possible triangle.  So this is what I'll be following Monday if prices agree with the pattern. 
NASDAQ COUNT.
At the moment, the NASDAQ 100 is channeling better than the Composite. And lets face it, it's all about the 100 anyway. 

So here is the preferred count if we get another higher high.

We actually have 2 virgin spaces. The first is near the bottom and would be perfectly placed if the rise stopped at 1.  But it kept going and formed another smaller one in the middle of 3 where it should be.

The Composite does not have this second virgin space.

11,280 is where 5 = .618 x wave 3.  
And here is a revamped NDX squiggle based on possible Monday weakness right off the bat. This is pointing toward a Wednesday/Thursday peak also.

REVAMPED COUNT 1
Refined counts 2 and 3 from Friday, figured might as well revamp Count 1. I like this version better it takes into account the triangle that occurred in the wave toward the peak.
And revamped squiggle count if the high is already in. Therefore we pretty much have all our bases covered depending on how prices move on Monday.

This sideways long-winded wave (ii) would represent Intermediate (2) in how the market refuses to give up Grand Supercycle climb.  Intermediate (2) refuses to give up the chase and its now manifesting itself in a very small, but possibly stubborn wave (ii).   

And it looks like distribution too.


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