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Thursday, September 10, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 September 2020

Going to maintain a bearish stance here. (gee Dan, that's a surprise) In arithmetic scale, the last possible price channel from the march low was backtested at rejected today.
Again, everything is relatively aligned.  The DJIA actually made a lower low at end of day not followed (yet?) by anything else although the SPX came close. Market Makers walked prices higher this morning to attempt to close the last of the open chart gaps (Wilshire got closed). Then rejected and walked downward to attempt to close the open up gap.
Everything is very calm actually and that's a reason to bearish I suppose. There is no panic....yet. And that is as good a reason to be bearish as any.
Lots of similarities at key spots since the March low.  This time looks similar but this time may simply be sucking in the bulls rather than bears.  No one wants to short here because it keeps shaking the tree back and forth.  These intraday moves can be huge on leverage. 

The tepid exhausted bears always wait for the perfect moment but that usually never comes.  That would have been last week when I was counting up to [v] of 5 of (5).  Bears are waiting for the perfect "61.8%" fib retrace or whatever and it may just be shaking here low on the tree before taking a massive crap downward with loaded longs and very little shorts. That's how the market likes to punish. 
It could be just a [i] and wave [ii] was a 3-3-5 downward flat that ended today. Maybe we open green tomorrow for a last head fake before plunging. Winter is coming...
Again the top alternate (if the market has not peaked) is this count below. Its contrived. If the June peak is overlapped in price that breaks the count. I think the market knows this very well. And break of the June peak may very well be swift and without mercy.
I mean really, the market is still at NASDAQ 10,919 for Pete's sake! Yes bubbleland or have you forgotten?

And we already have multiple overlap with the DJIA June peak. In fact another close beneath it. 
And DOW THEORY has been potentially triggered again for a massive sell side signal. Transports made a new major (swing) high and DJIA did not confirm.
CPCE. .54 print! Wow still super bullish. Every moving average though has crossed up over the 30....
10 year still holding price support.
Do we have one more exhausted pop on the GERMAN DAX coming? I guess we'll know soon enough. It may be too shallow an angle for a wedge move.

Next to the American markets, the Germans run a close second for most corrupt. (well ok Chinese take the cake but they are Communists)
Ah, the FED bought NO ETF's in August. In fact their holdings went down in value by $64M.

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