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Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 September 2020

Primary count is that Minute [ii] peaked today on the Fed "news" in a downward flat 3-3-5 count that retraced the entire decline a healthy 47% or so which is adequate for a wave [ii].

Price action today appeared on several occasions that wave iii of (c) of [ii] was going to charge uphill in prices. Ultimately they reversed lower both times.  Therefore wave (c) could have ended in a messy ending diagonal count as labeled below. This implies exhaustion.

Note the up volume ratio at the peak price today on the NYSE. Is that a buying climax? What should have been a "third of a third" wave up punctured a tire.

At any rate, if this is Minute [ii], it is getting "long in the tooth".  After prices collapsed in about 8 hours of trading from peak we have had 8 days of possible bearish consolidation. The consolidation may be over and the market primed for a big wave [iii] lower.
Apparently Chairman Powell can guarantee low rates for 4 years despite the huge amount of record debt sloshing around. We'll see how the market tests that theory.

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