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Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 September 2020

Well, since the recent Fed Day peak of [ii] the market has traced only 3 waves down. Ideally, we should have another wave lower immediately to form a 5 wave move from that peak as a minimum.

So despite all the selling as of recently, we need another move lower to confirm the larger count(s).
There may be another possibility; that the market has not yet finished Minute wave [ii] flat count. The move lower would be wave (b) of [ii] and now we are starting wave (c) which should carry prices above 50% retrace of the entire decline. This would be the relentless dip-buying that has not yet abated.

The top alternate count(s) of eventual new market highs are still intact. The June peak was not yet touched in prices which is important for the bearish case as it would start to eliminate the bullish count(s).

So we technically could still have this as a count; but prices cannot really go any lower or else overlap with the June peak would invalidate this.
But the move from peak has become quite large and it may actually relate to wave 2 rather than a subwave [iv] of 3. This count kind of stinks because it has the middle section of wave 3 as a jumbled mess as opposed to the beginning and the end sections. That makes this count suspect. But we can decide all that if the market makes a new all-time high, that can be debated at that time. 

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