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Wednesday, September 9, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 September 2020

Despite the big rally, still stair stepping down?  I really don't know how else to count it in a bearish manner other than what we got below. 
Wilshire 5000 didn't close its gap down, neither did the Composite or NDX. The SPX (pretty much) and DJIA did close their gaps down. However, still produced a "lower high" than the rally Friday. So every index is still in agreement, or "aligned".  The primary count is that they are aligned for a big move lower. 
Will post more soon.

Ok, here is the primary count from the hourly perspective. Primed for a "third of a third" wave down. Again, we can "tee" the count up like a golf ball, its up to Mr. Market to hit a 300 yard drive down the middle of the fairway.
The alternate count is that the market may have one slight lower low closing the virgin space gap (blue box area) or mostly closing and then rallying very hard after a "falling wedge" type pattern. Maybe it rallies on stimulus news who knows. Or whatever, who cares at this point.

But the big thing with this count is that the market will have many more weeks of (likely choppy) rally.

But the alternate count doesn't smell right. For one reason, the VIX is very high and the closer we get to election the more people are getting scared (and making threats).  Another reason is you have to "re-light" the incredible rally fires that were burning its way to a 12,000 Nasdaq.  It feels like momentum may have broken.

I heard more than 1 person tell me their plan was "get out of stocks in their 401K" right before the election and then wait and see afterwards. What if a lot of people are thinking the same?

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