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Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 September 2020

Prices have rallied a tad over 50% of the entire decline over the past many days since the low. This indicates the best bearish wave count is that the market is in wave [ii]. Also, a potential base channel has finally formed from market peak. This "base" channel should be containing prices toward going lower in a stair-step manner and eventually will plunge through the bottom in an acceleration panic "third of a third" down at some point. Well, that's the ideal bearish Elliott Wave scenario anyways.
So the squiggle count would look like this. Minute [ii] would take the form of a complex corrective combination structure. (Much like our proposed Minor wave 4 took the form of a complex corrective combination count - see chart above)

This chart could still be labeled [i]-[ii], (i)-(ii), but since the low, a 5 wave impulse up exists which really can only be labeled in a bearish manner such as I have below as wave c of an expanded 3-3-5 flat.
The other possibility is that only wave (a) of [ii] has formed and wave [ii] is taking the form of a 5-3-5 zigzag pattern. In this case, expect wave (b) pullback in some manner (likley into the gap below) and then wave (c) will be another impulse upwards finishing the zigzag pattern to [ii].
The top alternate count that has the market eventually making new all-time highs would have the recent up move over the last few days wave [i] of 5 up. This count sucks but if there is a new high, than its the best interpretation.  Minute [ii] pullback would form a potential inverted head and shoulders bottoming pattern.

Note how the count does not change the basic substructures, it merely rearranges the labeling in how the substructures connect. 
CPCE. Amazing they are trying to re-light the fire that brought about the August surge. They damn well may succeed. There was no panic in a 14% correction of the Nasdaq...
And finally a red candle on the monthly. In September. 
10 Year yields. The wedge count is losing its potential. Unless the stock market horribly collapses right here and now (our Minute [ii] count suggests just that!) and scares everyone into bonds for the time being.  Its getting interesting...

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