Best guess squiggle count. Again, the theme is (i) should ideally finish lower than [i].
Finally some movement off the bullishness of the CPCE toward a more bearish stance.Friday, October 30, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 October 2020
Thursday, October 29, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 October 2020
Best guess squiggle count. the main theme is that pink (i) finishes lower than green [i].
I could have shown this yesterday (the data comes in later though) but the NYSE experienced what I consider a negative "breadth event" in the last 14 days on the heels of a significant positive breadth event. This is highly unusual. Again, this market is reaching more "abnormal" conditions than what has gone on in the past. This is to be expected in my view. The ultimate crash, in my opinion, will not follow any "expected" or "normal" technicals. For instance we expect huge gaps (talking about down in this case) to be eventually filled but that may not happen at all.They should however, follow solid EW guidelines.
Expect the unexpected! When market participants have been "conditioned" for decades on technicals, when retail are now studiously employing technicals at the end game of the financial mania, we can expect technicals are going to go crazy and "fail" in many ways that will wipe out retail. Retail should have discovered "technicals" in the 1990's or 2000's not in 2019 and 2020. That's my thinking here and has been. They are, as usual, late to the game and the game is about to change.
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 October 2020
The break lower out of a small "base' channel since the recent high seems to fit our primary wave count. Pink Minuette wave (i) of [iii] should finish lower than green Minute wave [i], hence our labeling of the squiggles.
Both the Dow and Transports have had significant declines.Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 October 2020
There is something different about the decline from the recent peak where we have [ii]. It has been a steady progression versus the declines from 1,3 and 5 which were violent and steep. So far we have true "stair-stepping" in EW fashion perhaps.
The CPCE is incredibly, stubbornly bullish. This is real money betting big on continued upside. But look at that elevated VIX. As was suggested earlier this year, a sub-20 VIX may be unattainable for years to come. Perhaps a higher state of agitation exists within the population and the VIX perfectly reflects that.
Note the sub-20 in the runup to February 2020. I think that calmer state of being is gone. This higher state of agitation can result in huge market moves. We've seen our share of huge moves to the upside this year (and of course to the downside). But it is not a calm market. SPX at 3400+ and VIX at 30+!! Not your father's market.
Monday, October 26, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 October 2020
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 October 2020
Waiting on the election I guess. I suppose everyone figures they will have time to dump if they need to. Or buy. Its ballsy either way. Prices are fantastic in my opinion. If you been on a 10 - 15 year ride in a 401K, my goodness, take some off the table.
10 Year yield on the moveTuesday, October 20, 2020
Monday, October 19, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 October 2020
I wasn't able to update Friday so lets see where things stand.
Well, we'll post the potential squiggle counts. If [ii] topped, its generally downhill. If 5 still requires a new all-time high , well, then we haven't topped (duh). So far, neither count has been outright eliminated.
However, if its [iv], we have about reached the limit of decline in which the count would still make sense.
Thursday, October 15, 2020
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 October 2020
The squiggle count is at its most ambiguous on the 5 minute chart which probably means the market is going to collapse straight to hell.
This was yesterday's CPCE data (I won't get new data until much later). Its insane.Tuesday, October 13, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 October 2020
Tonight's chart combines last night's top two counts into one squiggle chart because I'm feeling lazy and its a pretty clear picture regardless. Consider them both "primary" counts at this stage because both counts suggest that even if new highs come, this wave up is almost over.
The first count is that the market does not make new highs and and its counted as Minute [ii].
The second count assumes new highs in the Wilshire and wave [iv] and [v] of 5 will trace out.
We are at SPX 3500 and the VIX keeps diverging higher ending the day at a 25.99. This is not a calm market. There is a lot of tension underneath. Its like playing craps and you think the dice is hot, you can't be beat, and you keep going "all in" on the bet. Sooner or later the house wins. Always.
Monday, October 12, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 October 2020
Primary count is that wave 5 of (5) is tracing higher and will eventually become new all-time highs. It almost made it today. The count below is not ideal, however, there is alternation between waves 2 and 4 (flat versus zigzag) and breaks no rules.
Friday, October 9, 2020
Ellliott Wave Update ~ 9 October 2020
Well, as suggested the last few days, the primary count probably suggest the market will incur new highs eventually or at least challenge them which you could say is already happening.
However its likely a fleeting moment in time. A last charge up the hill before final defeat. There are open gaps up all over the place on the Wilshire 5000 and these should be filled in due time.
Thursday, October 8, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 October 2020
The waves are impulsing up in 5 wave moves. I can assume this may be the true primary count.
I mean look, they managed to relight the fire under the CPCE...calls going through the roof again. Its simply stunning. Hey, if the market reversed course and simply collapsed from here, we wouldn't be surprised. The bets are all still very one-sided.Wednesday, October 7, 2020
Tuesday, October 6, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 October 2020
Monday, October 5, 2020
Friday, October 2, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 October 2020
And the alternate count that the market has not yet peaked.
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 October 2020


Yet, stripping away all the labels and we are left with a bearish pattern of lower lows and lower highs in an expanding downward-looking megaphone that really has yet to be broken. The pattern below is not a bullish pattern, it is generally a bearish one. Something still must occur to break the bearish pattern in order to become a bullish pattern.
