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Friday, November 13, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 November 2020

I threw a hastily slopped together count up on the hourly Wilshire chart Tuesday. I don't like it because it largely throws away some very good squiggle work done at the time the waves were tracing.  The point was to label the recent November low as "Minor 4." (This point has not changed)

So today I took the time to connect the wave structures in a more logical way that observes the Elliott Wave rules and as many guidelines as possible. In doing so, I realized it works much better and all the squiggle structures I had worked hard on over the summer remain intact and actually it all makes a lot more sense in retrospect.

Its how we connect them and label the connections is where we have flexibility. So instead of counting 3 impulse waves of Minute size to minor wave 1 peak, we can count them as a series of ones and twos. Therefore we haven't changed the underlying nature of the squiggles. An impulse is still an impulse. A complex corrective remains as such.

The count sort of resembles the best count of the DJIA and it works best for the SPX also. So we have regained a synergy in the counts. And it keeps intact the weird June-July price action and it works much better as a (iii)-(iv), [iii],[iv] during that time frame. 

There are no rules violations overlaps and no truncations in the impulse structures. It is from this standpoint that probably matters the most and thus creates the best count.

And as you can read my snarky comment on the chart above, I assume the market will continue to hold up for a while. The pivot low of early November is the key wave marker of course.

Peak RSI is at "3" where we would expect it.  
This aligns where we have peak RSI on the weekly for the higher wave degree (3)

The NIKKEI is making like a 30 year high. Its significant but the move higher has helped resolve the wave mess over the last many years.
And the impulse from the March low counts well and more or les aligns with the Wilshire, DOW and SPX counts.
Again, there are more than enough waves in place to consider the count "over", but again, lets assume there is room for more madness of the crowds




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