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Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 December 2020

Do the waves predict something bad will happen that the market will collapse as a result (yes) or does an event happen that will result in a market collapse (yes again)? Both things are correct in the end. For instance if a nuclear explosion happened and the market collapsed we would say that was the cause. Who would argue that? (In retrospect did Hiroshima and Nagasaki trigger a market collapse? - no!)

However I would argue that an "event", any event, could trigger a collapse of this market. That is the nature of Elliott Waves.  When the structure and sentiment is ripe for reversal we will blame whatever is in the "news" at the moment to be the cause. Does anyone remember the "Greece" debt hysteria of many years ago supposedly responsible for world wide markets getting hammered? Doesn't it seem silly now that the mood and "news" has changed? Of course it does!

Something will "happen" and get trumpeted in the "news" as the next cause of market collapse. We just cannot predict what that will be. So be prepared for anything, It won't matter. A hard reversal is coming and we won't know what they will blame it on until "it" happens.


Wave (i) of [v] has yet to be violated so we must assume a new high is coming.

From a zoomed out perspective this looks like it could be correct.
APPLE.     Yes I said markets would not top until Apple does. It may be finally heading toward its all-time high. 
A closeup reveals a possible break upwards in wave [iii] of 5. All that is required is 5 waves up from "4" and a new all-time high.  The stock moves first and then expect to hear the "news" on why its moving.
Wilshire Daily. Double divergence in RSI would be a typical wave topping pattern.
Junk had a small break above a small triangle. Its getting close. Incredible considering this.
I have no further words for the state of the CPCE other than the comments I pasted to the chart itself. February looked extreme, but I have no words for how that extreme was absolutely obliterated.

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