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Thursday, December 17, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 December 2020

Our top 2 count variations are still chugging along. And to be honest, I have no preference on how things will play out. Things usually don't crash during the holidays but January is always a different story.

Viewed from farther out showing both count variations. Wave 5 is so much longer in time compared to everything else. Its almost as if the market has slowed down and stretched itself out. Which maybe it has. In other words, its levitating and swimming in so much bullshit that the ultimate reversal that is coming will be epic and make the march plunge look like child's play. 

We don't know what will be the "news" at the time it happens but things will be blamed on it. Perhaps the news will be that Joe B. will not be President due to his horrible family corruption and/or deteriorating health. Hey, its not me saying this, its the New York Times! (ah yes, they want him removed as soon as possible - he is the true Manchurian candidate)

The crash is coming and it will be historic.
Weekly is almost finally in RSI "overbought" condition. I suspect it will get to 70+ yet with the telltale divergence we often see associated with wave (3) and (5) labels.Another reason to suspect the market will remain elevated through the New Year is Apple seems to be on the move to completing its wave pattern which probably needs more time.
Tesla is also spasming to its all-time peak
And the VIX still refuses to trade sub-20. A state of 20+ agitation. I predicted that back in June and so far that has proved correct.  I would be very surprised if the VIX traded below 20 for any serious length of time as it had many years prior to the February 2020 peak.

This alone, suggests and shows how social mood is changing in a major way.
NYSE Breadth chart. Again, likely extreme, abnormal behavior.
Lockheed. My proxy chart for all the "white" collar, government-related jobs that have largely been unaffected (not really any layoffs)  by the events of 2020. However the stock seems to be struggling and is suggesting otherwise. 
Yesterday's CPCE 180 day moving average. I would say when we see this finally bottom and turn up a tick is when to get the hell out of stocks for sure.
In fact, when the 30 day moving average ticks up will likely be a better trigger. The 10 day has already done so but this is yesterday's data. New data doesn't come out for me until much later.

Lemmings! LOL!
And what to make of the DJIA? The best count is that it is in a historic ending diagonal triangle of some sort (rising bearish wedge) and we have to be patient in not labeling things (and thus locking yourself into an untenable count) too early. Elliott Wave International has the same pattern but perhaps is not as flexible as I am in the substructure labeling. 

The rule of thumb in any triangle labeling is we tend to rush things.  This chart does suggest that the market high is almost upon us and that expecting it to hold up through January may be unrealistic no matter the Apple count, or the Wilshire variations.

I mean just look at the CPCE charts above, dudes, we are in unchartered territory yet the story will remain the same nonetheless.
Just look at Junk!

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