Custom Search

Monday, December 7, 2020

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 December 2020

 Primary count is that the market is working its way up in wave [v] of 5.

In the squiggle count, we are looking for the top of (iii) of [v] which should be the next small thrust higher. Then wave (iv), then (v) of [v] of 5.

The top alternate count is that only wave [iii] of 5 is in progress, there will eventually be a wave [iv] and then wave [v] likely to take us well into the month of January 2021 for a major top, perhaps around Inauguration Day which is January 20th.

The inordinate amount of more time added would make the entire structure up from the March low look a bit distorted. Very quick waves at the beginning, long, drawn out waves at the back end. Hence, I prefer the primary count and because sentiment measures are reaching gargantuan extremes now and not a month or more from now...(although I suppose they could get even more extremerer...)

If this is the case, do some math calculations in that wave [iii] would likely extend itself around 1.618 Fibonacci times wave [i]. I'll do the math later but you get the idea.
What's up with the Industrial count? It has a huge 300+ point open chart gap from at least 28,500 to 28,800 (Wilshire had closed its same gap) and is sort of taking an ending diagonal triangle rising wedge count. But like all triangles there is a tendency to label them too quickly. 

So things could time out for both the Wilshire and INDU counts to finish nearly the same time (which they should).
Wilshire weekly. In the stratosphere.
(Friday's CPC/CPCE data)

CPC TOTAL PUT CALL RATIO (not just equities) 10 day moving average just plunged to where it usually doesn't go.  It's amazing how bullish things are even though 20 Million are unemployed and tons of uncertainty in the air.

I think its a situation like the game of "chicken" where one car drives toward another and the winner is whoever doesn't flinch and swerve first. But of course if no one swerves, they both end in a horrible crash. 

Yeah, I don't think anyone is blinking here. Pedal to the metal.  Most fund managers admit "they have no choice". The herd is what protects them. They feel safe in the herd. No one is sticking their necks out in fear of doing something different or less they be fired. 

Yes the herd is in a safe zone even if they know they are going to crash. Afterall, everyone will have crashed and burned also so therefore they can't get singled out. It's really as simple as that, nothing more, nothing less.  Its classic herd behavior at an extreme I don't think we'll ever see again.

This herd mentality has reached all segments of society. Science, education, financial markets, etc. etc. The one who dares to think different nowadays gets their head chopped off by the lunatic cancel culture mobs.
And the CPCE reflects complete capitulation to the herd.  Like I said, its to the point where no one cares in the end. The fund managers are safe doing what everyone else is doing. They will all fall off the cliff like lemmings as a result. I think many of them realize it, but again, what choice do they have?

The computer algorithms and even the Robinhooders - who are being frontrun by everyone - are the pied pipers! And this time its not just retail who will get wiped out, but everyone!!

I mean literally, you can see them going over the cliff here with the 180 day moving average!

Yet that VIX is still in a serious state of 20+...I liken the VIX to a "state of agitation" gauge. Everyone on one side of the bet, yet very nervous all the same. Very divergent from the state of the VIX at the February peak. 

Revisiting the Apple count. Over the summer I suggested the market will not top until Apple does and that's still probably true. It has been tracing a big triangle since its all time peak.

I don't like Apple because they exploit the Chinese slave labor. We have clean rivers in the USA because we exported our pollution to Asia and take advantage of cheap labor working under conditions that no one here in the USA would put up with.
Apple may be poised for a thrust up in wave [iii] of 5.
I have nothing against Tesla, per se, but I hate electric cars. People don't want them, we are not stupid. It has nothing to do with being environmentally conscious as electric vehicles are probably a net polluter (overall when you consider the amount of toxic lithium being mined and where are we going to dump it all??) versus gas powered.

Ever wonder why asshole politicians are pushing them on us? Its not about the environment its about control. If you haven't figured that out yet, you haven't been reading the tea leaves.

Electric vehicles are all about control. Controlling the movements of the population - i.e. - the plebes. Ban the gas engine and viola! We are dependent on plugging into the "grid" to get around. 

May I go to the beach in the next state over for vacation Governor, pretty please? NO! your car's electronics have been programmed not be able to use the grid outside a 50 mile radius! Stand down serf! (while the politician flaunts his gas-powered SUV for a trek to the mountains)

blog comments powered by Disqus