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Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 January 2021

UPDATE:

Here is the Wilshire weekly and Monthly. The weekly is presented in log scale form. It looks good! The monthly presents a different "take" on the count, and it also looks good! How can this be?

The same waves shown in arithmetic scale show something a bit different.  Which count is correct, the log chart above of this one below? They BOTH (in essence) are correct! Yes, this is the final wave 5 of (5) of [5] of V of (V) of [III]. But it also likely a FALSE TOP (false social mood peak) as shown on arithmetic scale.  In either case we are probably marking a major turning point.

The resulting outcomes are likely the exact same.  Particularly in the false top scenario of a 3-3-5 expanded flat only one thing can follow: 5 devastating waves down that finish well beneath the March 2020 low.  Target: Wilshire 15,000

I have no problem counting it both ways for now as the outcome will be the same.

ORIGINAL POST

The social fabric is being torn across this country.  This historic turn in social mood has been predicted on this blog for years, as Elliott Wave theory's top count has us in a Grand Supercycle wave [III] peak and the first subwaves of Grand Supercycle wave [IV] downturn.  Grand Supercycle [I]'s peak was the 1720 "South Sea Bubble".  Grand Supercycle wave [II] low was the Revolutionary period and founding of the United States.  2021 marks a Fibonacci 233 Years from the ratifying of the U.S. Constitution in 1788, essentially the founding of the United States. 

That same constitution is now under heavy attack. The Bill of Rights is certainly under heavy attack by totalitarians who wish to cement their rule.  Its the Venezuelan model and the Communist Chinese model.

It is occurring rather quickly and seems to be accelerating.  When insurance companies start cancelling coverage because of "wrongthink" we can be sure the country's social fabric will undergo a terrible series of trials and tribulations.  Things are just getting started.  How is it that AIG think they can openly do this? Well, they were encouraged because the cowardly court system has proven itself thoroughly corrupt and cowered.

You cannot depend on the "rule of law" to bail you out if you get caught on the "wrong" side of things. 

Human nature never changes. It was scary times at major turning points and purges in the Roman Empire. It was scary times during the Spanish Inquisition. It was scary times during WWII.  Just because we are in the technology-heavy 21st century does not mean we are suddenly "enlightened". Certainly not. Again evil is on the march. Sauron has opened the Gates of Mordor and unleashed his minions upon Middle Earth. We either find the courage to face this evil, under God, or even just under simply human decency, or we succumb and be complicit in evil's overtaking of society.

I know I have been coming across as a bit hyperbolic lately, but every day I wake up and read headlines that just reinforce what I wrote the night before. The "social credit system" enacted by the Chinese Communist Party is being copied here by the thoroughly corrupt and captured left-wing led corporations. What can be done?

Shame them all publicly! Have courage! Shame them and tell them how it is wrong to deny insurance (tomorrow it will be the food store!) because of political beliefs!  And if they agree with that policy have no mercy in shaming them and make them feel uncomfortable. If you work there make sure you don't approve of the new rules to the bosses in a way that hopefully you keep your job.  

You see two sides can play the same game and it will accelerate the societal split that is surely coming. It is inevitable. One side keeps making up the rules and banning the other side, which means the other side will be forced to do the same. The forces have been set in motion. 

And how does this produce record economic activity? It doesn't of course! Tribalism is re-emerging. Corporations who served 100 million, will be reduced to serving only 50 million and then will split even further.  Its all massively deflationary and negative behavior that has yet to be reflected in the stock market.

Those who cast their lot with the devil may be impossible to "save".  We have to keep trying though, these are fellow citizens and in many cases our own family members! Those Germans and others who cooperated with Nazi's in rooting out "subhumans" to turn them in to get shot or worse were complicit in evil. They gave the devil support in order to save their own bodies. Yet no doubt many lost their souls in the process.

As was said last night this major turn of mood is likely occurring near the peak of a false (B) wave top. These kind of events seem to mark major tops (and bottoms). Big Tech felt empowered in their hubris at the top of the false wave to make their move on what they have been wanting to do forever - snuff out all those who stand in their way to absolute power. But I am confident that this is marking a major turning point as a result.

The totalitarians feel that they have "captured" enough of the institutions to make their move on the entire country. And certainly they have captured a great deal. The schools, the Media, the Deep State bureaucrats, the military, and of course the mega-corporations that the Republicans have so short-sighted helped build to be the agents of their own destruction.

McConnell and others of his ilk will be "cancelled" sooner or later in a way that may cause him to reflect and find courage. But I don't hold out hope. All those who helped totalitarians gain power will have some soul-searching to do when the forces of evil come finally knocking on their doors to march them off to the awaiting boxcars. 

I'll say this, when the wave (stock market) peaks and turns downwards a tremendous counterpunch to the totalitarian forces on the march is coming.  I say this rhetorically of course as it will take many forms.  The captured institutions are clearly "making their move" on the rest of society, but once the wave peaks and passes, and once the sentiment shifts extremely negative yet again, they will feel the social mood counterpunch in a way that will surprise them and send them reeling.

Hitler made a move on taking over Germany early in 1923 and wound up in jail. He eventually succeeded but his timing in 1923 was against the social mood trends at the time and failed. The mega-corporations will not succeed here either. Their bad timing at the peak will turn out to be fatal.  They think we will all cower (as they have misinterpreted) and lay over and just take it without punching back twice as hard.  They will be surprised. 

Many will certainly not "see the light" as they have thrown their lot in with the devil already. But we must fight against totalitarianism in all its forms nonetheless. We must convince those who can see the light but are timid to have courage! You have Archangels of great power willing and ready to fight for you against any evil. Call on them they are ready!

The coming storm in social mood guarantees the old playbook of the Uniparty is already extinct and no going back to it. They just haven't realized it yet, but they will. Trump knows this his instincts are uncanny.  When he predicted the stock market will collapse under Democratic rule he will likely turn out to be correct.  Many (if not most) wealthy people have thrown their lot in with the totalitarians (for now) but many don't like losing money nonetheless. 

And yes, don't forget, BLM/Antifa will want to be paid.  And they won't be looking for their payments from the trampled....the wealthy will have to fork it over. And almost all the wealthy have already thrown themselves in with the forces of the new totalitarians, and in theory, already on the same team as BLM/Antifa. Again, socialism is class warfare primarily! Its going to get interesting.

THE COUNTS

The Wilshire's small triangle finally broke upwards. Who realizes that the Wilshire made yet a new all-time intraday peak today when most other major indexes did not? It did.

Primary count is that we are not quite "there". The timing is starting to align with Inauguration Day on the 19th. Trump will have gone out on a social mood high (relatively speaking) and an all-time peak. That's gonna sting for the people trying to cancel him out.
Another variation has today as a peak believe it or not. In other words there are enough squiggles in place to consider the count complete. (although it probably isn't)
For those who think we will have a stock market "honeymoon" period post-inauguration, the second count will allow for that. But we need a sharp downturn for [iv] likely first.
Another monster volume candle. The computers are starting to break. The algorithms are straining under the weight. The internal gears have all ground their teeth to nubs. Its starting to slip gears...
Yesterday's CPCE! 
The algo's are under tremendous stress! Shut off but a few of them and there is NO LIQUIDITY IN THIS MARKET!




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