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Friday, January 29, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 January 2021

Update: 

Here is the top alternate count if the "top" is not in. Basically a move down to the blue "base" channel and a bounce off. Something to that effect. Here I have it labeled as the 5 of (5), and not the (B) wave but its a moot point at this stage. I could replace the "4" with a B and the "5" with a C it would be all the same. 

Update:

Here is Jim Cramer of CNBC fame sounding very agitated and telling WSB "You've won, sell the stock and go home".   He is no doubt getting heat because he actually took the side of the "little guys" when it was only headed to $80 earlier in the week.  Something big is brewing, they sent Jim out LOL he knows he has no sway!

Do the opposite of what Cramer says always!  I have a feeling next week is going to be very turbulent.  The SEC is likely to step in and stop trading on GSE and a few other names.  And then they will get OWS2.  

I smell a "scorched earth" strategy being developed as Wall Street has clearly backed themselves (and their enablers - i.e. - the Uniparty "elites") into a corner. Even if they stop trading in GSE there are MANY other horribly shorted stocks that cannot be possibly covered. It'll be like "whack-a-mole" and it will be blatant. The only possible "cover" (pun!) the elites could have is if the stock market crashes like you would not believe and only then may they shift sentiment a bit - or so the thinking goes. (but it won't!) 

Basically they will burn the system down to "save it" (save themselves). Hey they came out of the 2009 crash ok and they figure it won't be any different. Scumbags all of them. Mood is a wee bit tad more on the ugly side and it will fail spectacularly. 

They will NOT take the losses. They will steal your money right out in the open just like they did the election.  And of course, they will blame Trump.

LOL pass the popcorn!  I'll be in amazement watching all the pretzel-twisting logic that is sure to come!

And oh yeah, The DJIA closing high was...election day the 20th. Intraday high was a 1 minute pop on the morning of Joe "Dementia Brains" Biden's 1st full day in office, the 21st.

We are all in the best of hands. Well, at least we'll get that global warming licked, yeah baby!

ORIGINAL POST

Officially, the month was red for the Wilshire 5000 believe it or not. It opened at 39,456 and closed at 39,396 producing basically a long-candled potential Doji candle.  

Volume was historic to say the least and dwarfs anything that has come before. The computers probably cannot handle more volume than what has occurred this month. There are already obvious distortions and we are near an all-time peak! Real selling hasn't even begun!

[And I'll keep repeating this because all the Wall Street apologists have yet to point out the obvious: You hedge fund guys are down $50B at a market peak???  We are supposed to bail you out now? What happens if the market collapses? What then? Bail you out at the top and your bank enablers at the bottom?? Or are you all just one and the same? Hint: there won't be any $$$ or social mood to be bailing out anyone at any time.]

The monthly is shown as the "false top" expanded 3-3-5 flat (B) wave count. If (B) is over, (C) should be commencing now forming 5 Minor waves down to complete the expanded flat formation. (C) as a rule (being an expanded flat), is required to finish under the price of (A) which was the March 2020 low. But for the structure to "look right", ideally it finishes much lower. My best guess is the twin peaks of 2000 and 2007 approximately Wilshire 15,000 which would act as its most natural support.  Back of the napkin calculation puts that at about a 63.5% market loss from peak.

Prices back to 2007? Is that really so crazy when we are looking at stratospheric mania that has gone on for 10+ solid years and particularly the last 8 months or so? 

The Wilshire weekly. This is shown as the (5) of [5] count. Again, both are acceptable at this stage and I will freely intermingle the 2 counts as in a way they seem both correct.

Classic waning RSI and rejection of prices from the upper channel line after a small poke through the top.
Daily.
Hourly. Series of one's and two's down?
I think I downloaded this chart on yet another Zero Hedge Marketwatch post (hey they post great stuff so I might as well use it and give them credit - but I lost the link)

Regardless its a BofA chart. House price index.  I added the 1 - 5 and also the contracting triangle lines for "4". Yup, house price index has probably peaked.
GME.  The big pullback the other day seemed like a gap cover. Your classic "stop run", particularly since it rebounded so hard. Today may also have been a gap cover move. 

Did the big banks hedgies all cash out their short positions on a float that is probably still over 100% shorted? Um I doubt it, that's why they are squealing to the flunkies at CNBC, Marketwatch, politicians and whoever else to cry an uncle for them in the name of "market stability".  You see they are threatening you. First the SEC "may investigate Reddit WSB". Then they throw the "foreign interference" card at you. 

They are actually trying every demoralizing trick in the book because sentiment has already shifted hard and public opinion is clearly on the side of the "little guy". I heard a group of young men, some in their 20's some in 30's and some in 40's walking past each other in a crowded hall and one says, "Gamestop!" out loud the other turns back and says, "AMC! They're the ones to watch!" (the guy in his 40's said that).

They know the story. I doubt they are participating or maybe they have a stake in things but knowing these guys it surprised me they were even aware of the story. The story has been "framed" (properly) as "the people - aka - the little guy" vs. Wall Street Hedge Monsters and no amount of whining or craven politicians are going to fool anyone at this stage trying to convince the public of anything different. 

The "Elite" keep throwing crap against the wall to see what will stick and thus you'll see this "problem"  being approached from many, many angles this weekend. From "threat to the Republic" to whatever. You'll hear it all. And the "elites" (many who have direct connections and family members working for Wall Street) will have all weekend to hatch their evil plans. Don't be fooled by any of it!

[For instance, now the official "reasonable" explanation for Robinhood restricting buying in targeted equities is Dodd-Frank made them do it. Bullshit. If they have tapped $1B, they should be good-to-go instead of restricting shares today. Its a f****** lie. Update: looks like their business model is rapidly collapsing...is RH a complete ponzi-scheme fraud ready to be exposed???]

By Monday, they'll have settled on blaming Trump, and thus the elites "must" now respond as a result. 

LOL, they took Trump's mouthpiece away!  He is not even able to stick his foot in his mouth any longer! See how short-sighted they are?

Who wants to make a bet that TWATTER offers to give him his account back?

Who on CNBC will peddle that suggestion first?

LOLOLOL!  Pass the popcorn!

I'll have more later particularly the top ALT counts (in which the market has not peaked yet)






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