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Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 January 2021

Tonight's post will focus on if yesterday's high was not the final high. Why? Because we had the DJIA count in an ending diagonal triangle and it should have been exhausted and prices collapsed even more. It did not happen today so perhaps we have a few more squiggles. That's the problem with triangles (including ending diagonal wedge triangles), we tend to label them too early but this one is of an exceptional length and form. 

If the top was in, prices should collapse tomorrow immediately.

However, the next best option is the 2 DJIA ED counts presented below. They really don't differ at all in the final result. Its just the way we label it that's different.

In the first labeling, The early peak is labeled Minute [i]. I made a complex count of the internals on the 1st chart and left the 2nd chart a bit simpler because its the same count only of a differing degree. You'll see they'll make sense.

The 1st chart shows a better relationship in both time and price within the five Minute [brackets] waves.  

The second count is a better textbook count in that only Minute [v] of Minor 5 is the ending diagonal as it should be since [i] and [iii] were clearly impulses up.  It just doesn't have a good relationship in price and time....[v] looks "outsized" beyond parody, however it does not violate anything!

I like both charts. And if you'll note, they project the exact same thing regardless! 
Ok on to the Wilshire counts. I'll simplify things as I have been throwing a lot of variations lately. I settled on 3 and only using the hourly chart for tonight.

And to be honest, I have no preference at the moment, lets see what how the market resolves it all!

Count 1 has the top "in". Again, as per discussion above with the Ending Diagonal count of the DOW, if this is the case, look for prices to collapse immediately because the retrace is already very robust on the DOW (and everything for that matter).
Count 2 uses a different Minor blue 4 low (would then match the DOW) and that we are chugging up in 5 Minute waves to Minor 5 peak.
Count 3 goes back to using a different wave 4 low (as in Count 1), and this count probably has the most "time" left in it as compared to Counts 1 and 2 above.

This count has us gyrating to Minute [iii] peak, falling back down in Minute [iv] - (which would likely bounce off the blue parallel "base" channel formed by [i] and [ii], and the peak in Minute [v] of 5.

This is the count that could run the longest with a lot of gyrations as you can see.
Apple seems to be missing at least one wave.  [iv] did not violate [i] so the count is still valid.
Tesla also seems to be missing a squiggle or 2.
Finally, I'll leave you with this to ponder for the most bearish count is not that wave [v] of 5 of (5) of [5] of V is topping out....its that wave [B] is topping out of a huge expanded cycle wave a flat. Why?

Because a 3-3-5 expanded flat can only end in one way: five massive waves down that finish way beneath wave [A].  We seen this in 2007 - 2009 in wave (C) of expanded flat [4]. Are we repeating at a higher degree?? 

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