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Friday, January 8, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 January 2021

Personally, it seems like they are "buying the news" of a Biden/Harris administration (its been on a tear since the election) but when they actually take control on the 20th perhaps it will be the biggest "sell the news" event in the history of the stock market.

In fact, I think they really don't care about the stock market. Not like Trump did, nor even Obama (remember he told us to buy stocks in 2009?)   The Great Reset will need another manufactured "crisis" in order to enact emergency measures again as it seems the pandemic will be getting vaccinated this year.

Since the market is ripe for reversal, and once it starts, I would think they encourage it to continue to crash. The Fed is bloated and helpless anyways. Really there is nothing that can be done on the next major downturn. In fact, the next major crash I think Biden/Harris (in reality the puppeteers behind them holding the strings) will more than give it a nudge to the downside.

In fact one could say there was a "green light" behind the scenes to smoke this market higher until the actual Inauguration Day. Then all bets are off.  Who would be hurt the most with a cratered stock market? Not the Bezo's and Musk's of the world, their $500B will merely go to $100B and will they care? No, it will be the middle class hurt the most. And that would be convenient for the world cabal to first get everyone sick (who knows what long term effects that vaccine will have) and then they impoverish the last of the middle classes of the industrialized world via ensuring a collapsing stock market that never gets back up. 

And yeah, they'll need to enact emergency measures because of the social unrest. And directly takeover all of industry also. Call it the "Venezuela model".  

And Trump will have had his last day in office at the all-time peak.  You think in a year when financial shit is hitting the fan, he won't be fondly remembered and still highly revered? Remember, President's that go out of office on a social mood high - as represented by the stock market - have lifetime positive ratings as a result of being associated with that social mood peak when they were in office. Think Reagan, think Clinton, and even Obama. The opposite and negative lifetime sentiment ratings is Nixon, Carter, Bush I and II.

So Trumpism will certainly live no matter what happens to Trump.

In 3-6 months, after the age of Trump, who will be remaining for the left to attack? They'll eat each other, they always do. There will be more BLM/Antifa riots and now that they have so vigorously announced that rioting is verboten, they better have a response because the next storming of the Capitol won't be Trump supporters. 

Society is fracturing. The "conservatives" have fractured but you can surely bet the lefties will fracture also.  Their "rainbow" coalition of identity groups will sooner or later square off with each other. I mean they have captured all the world's governments and the Vatican what else is left?

Antifa punched the lefty Portland Mayor in the mouth. That's just an example. BLM demands fealty of whites, including Antifa whites. Another example. Pelosi gets pig's blood thrown on her house. They want payment.

I can say this: The patriots of this country, the Trump supporters, the second amendment lovers will largely and slowly get organized.  There won't be a "hot" civil war until the "state" actually tries to come door to door to take away the guns.

People are generally ignorant on history (a feature of the education system, not a bug), but it wasn't until the British actually marched to the countryside to confiscate the weapons cache of American colonists is when the shooting started.

It will be no different in the 21st century.  The moment they actually come for the guns, is the moment all hell breaks loose. We are not Australia, nor Canada, nor the totally emasculated Brits.  We are Americans.  Let that be the thought of the day. We don't have a 2nd Amendment so we can "hunt", we don't even have the 2nd Amendment so we can defend ourselves against common criminals. And although those things matter, we have a 2nd amendment primarily to keep totalitarianism of an overreaching government at bay.

Just sayin'.

ORIGINAL POST

Lets get right to the counts. For the first time in a few years, the Wilshire 5000 is in the overbought RSI range 70+ (using standard settings) on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts. 

And in fact, on the monthly and weekly prices are very close to hitting the upper channel line connecting Intermediate B of (2), which can be considered the irregular top of (1), Intermediate (3), and it needs a bit more for (5) to connect.

Daily top 2 counts. Really they are just variations on the same primary count.
BONDS. Ultimately this is the market which will catch everyone by surprise and cause the stock market to collapse.
Y
Yield count. Not sure to go with almost 1 up (to match wave 1 down on prices), or we are in "third of a third" up. Either way it looks like there is room to run.
Back in the channel. Again, the duration risk is tremendous. All the bonds bought with lower yields are losing value fast.  Has a bond route ever caused a stock market panic? Surely I think we will soon see.
And finally what to make of the Industrial count? (which is why I hate counting it in the first place!)
Here again, as was shown last night, perhaps we are in a false (B) wave. Then I could count the DOW as a double zigzag. No its not a great look. We might just be missing a whole lot more upside.

However, sentiment readings are historically extreme such as the persistent CPCE readings. 
Never thought the 90 day moving average would reach the "complacency" line. But it has. And the 180 day is soon behind. This is historic extremes. 


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