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Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 February 2021


I haven't mentioned much political stuff lately because its all so exhausting. Again, simply put, I am for the candidate(s) who whole-heartedly support the Bill of Rights for all Americans not merely half.

Regardless, we thought the "Age of Trump" would have been over on Inauguration day, the 21st of January. And indeed the DJIA "topped" on the first minute on the following morning until recently. But this "impeachment" is currently delaying the end of the Trump era.   The projected wave count to a major all-time market peak may in fact be aligning with the impeachment proceedings. 

Even in this (B) wave fake peak social mood projects Trump will not suffer any consequences.  Afterall, already 44 Senators voted against the proceedings as even being constitutional (its not). But it is curious that a "market top" may align itself with the final act in the Age of Trump. 

And the Democrats demanded they take Trump's mouthpiece away at the very wrong time!  LOL! Very short-sighted....he can't even put his foot in his mouth to piss of more fake Republicans.


Sometimes I think it simply comes down to closing the VIX open chart gap that was produced way back in February 2020. The computers may just be trading in such a manner as to produce that outcome.  The fact that market prices are WAY above February 2020 and the VIX is not sub-20 tells you all you need to know about how this market may be working on borrowed time.

But it's like a dog chasing a car down the street. Dog's of course lose the chase. But what if the dog actually caught up?? It probably wouldn't know what to do!

The best chance for the VIX gap to finally close - even if its only momentarily - is on this final small wave (v) of [v]. 


At today's intraday high of Wilshire 42,096, we are a mere 350 or so points, or very much less than 1% from our Fibonacci cluster range of 42,441 - 42,475. 

Best interpretation is that today's swift low was the price low of wave (iv) of [v]. This implies that wave (v) of [v] is underway.

But we are close enough to start putting "alt's" at each new peak including today.

The expanding triangle count for Minute [iv] could be very correct for two reasons: 1)  Today's high connected on a long trendline connecting the high of [i] and [iii].  2) The market has exhibited a very tremendous "thrust" move out of the triangle with hardly a pullback or breather. Up nearly 3,000 Wilshire points in a matter of 7 days.

The RSI pattern however fits the count - peak RSI at subwave iii of (iii) - so we'll assume the Wilshire will go just a bit higher to our ideal target range. But we sure are pushing things!
The weekly chart shows that the upper channel may have a bit more wiggle room to go higher, although it sure is close...
Last night's CPCE data printed a very boring .36.... *yawn*....(sarcasm!). Its when they keep printing sub .40's and the market is unable to continue moving higher is when it will all fall apart.
You are watching the market literally tear itself apart internally. The computers that dominate the trading are unable to stop themselves. The organizations front-running and spoofing with HFT machines are unable to stop themselves.  Hey, its been working they figure, so why stop?

This is like a 500 pound person addicted to carbohydrates. They simply are unable to stop eating because their bodies have adapted and demand carb fuel. Massive amounts of glucose constantly circulating the body. And the body has no self-regulating mechanism to stop it! That's why a 500 lb person can become 800 lbs and then 1000 lbs!  Only a heart attack (death) stops the process usually.

You are witnessing the same with the markets. The "machines" (both computer and human) are simply unable to stop gorging themselves on gamma. Veins coursing with gamma, feeding the system. And the only thing likely to stop it is a stock market heart attack.

And by the wave count, that heart attack is due very, very soon!
Here is more proof of a self-gorging system unable to self-correct. Total volume ratio's chart. Extremer-er and more extremer-er-er!

This is like looking at an EKG on the patient prior to a massive coronary.  The stresses are tremendous. 

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