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Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 February 2021

Our ideal target range for the Wilshire 5000 is 42,441 - 42,485. This is a dual Fiboannaci relationship between waves of differing degrees as shown below. We are not quite there yet.

However, in the premarket this morning, the S&P e-minis were trading (and peaked) about .38% higher than the cash open high of the SPX (and hence Wilshire).  Today's Wilshire 5000 cash open high of 42,290 was about 160 points below the ideal target of 42,450. However if we extrapolate the pre-market all-time high of the e-minis to the Wilshire 5000, we can surmise that the Wilshire, in essence, was trading at 42,450 in premarket.

Thus one can say that the Wilshire 5000 reached our ideal 42,450 marker but in premarket trading only. 

In light of this, I'll give the Wilshire the benefit of the doubt here and suppose it will attempt to match (and the SPX cash index for that matter) the new all-time high of the futures market. 

With that in mind, we have a couple of counts that may work:
Otherwise the best count is actually the "it's over" count.
Weekly. Solid hit on the upper channel line.
Another NYSE all-time high, yet internals are weakening still.
10 year Yields exploding. Now the bond market seems to be getting gamma-squeezed. This is not good! I'll have more charts later when the data updates....

10 year note price. Lots of ways to label the squiggles but the best is to simply draw a channel and until that is broken one way or another, the trend is down.

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