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Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 February 2021

In last night's update, I explained that the Wilshire 5000 had essentially traded in the futures of premarket to our ideal target range of 42,441 - 42,485.  The futures traded about 0.4% higher than the cash (SPX) index yesterday. That is a decent significant difference.  So I am going to assume (and give the count the benefit of the doubt) that the market will continue to strive to make Wilshire 42,450 in the cash session(s).  Today's session was a bit bearish at times but the major pivot point on the Wilshire was not breeched.

Therefore we have some counts that projects the Wilshire 5000 to make our target range high:

Variation #1 actually is nice in that it ensures wave (iii) is longer than wave (i) which is preferred.
The hourly chart shows a significant trendline in log scale which must be paid attention to. 5 hits so far (purple arrows). 
BEARISH COUNT:
On the flipside, we have the "it's over" count. It works quite well for now as we have had a small 5 waves from peak.
And thus on the hourly we have this:
VIX:
The VIX has not yet closed the open sore chart gap. Again, we'll assume it will try, try again. Like the little train that could.

CONCLUSION:
The Wilshire has yet to break a bearish pivot lower and has not yet reached our ideal range above.  The VIX open chart gap is not yet closed. The CPCE is still gamma squeeze mode probably (don't have data yet).  Therefore we'll give the market the benefit of the doubt. 

The  Gamestop/short squeeze fiasco will be "front and center" in the news tomorrow due to Congressional hearings.  Should be a lot of fireworks (volatility) either way. 


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