Update:
Nasdaq Composite total volume ratio gone mad chart.
I don't quiet understand why these volume ratios keep getting more and more extreme. I have likened it to the fact that the total volume flow to keep the entire Nasdaq Composite at 13,777 induces such a stress on the algorithms that they must flip stocks back and forth between computers more and more and more to keep things from collapsing. Simply put, I think its hard evidence of total market stress.
The Composite:100 ratio is actually a ratio of a ratio. The Total Composite Volume includes the 100 volume. Same with the Composite:SPX volume. There are many Nasdaq 100 stocks in the S&P 500. So it to is a ratio of a ratio.
The NYSE comparison though is "clean". There are no Composite or NDX stocks flowing through the NYSE as far as I know. Yet the ratio is rising just the same. Regardless, all 3 ratios keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger! This thing is going to blow at some point, I just don't know when that point is!
The total stress seems to be on the Composite (minus the NDX100) itself. All those junky Composite stocks are getting bid to the moon because they have to be in order for the Composite to go to 13,777! The computers are under stress.
CPCE GONE MAD CHART
The daily line is set to "invisible" so there is no clutter. But the pink line shows how the daily prints just kept going lower and lower in December/January. That small trend seems to have broken. The 30 day MA has flattened so its probably not possible to drop any lower. The 90 and 180 day are creeping under the "extreme complacency line" which they have never done! The groupings are getting tight.
I had been showing this chart in 3,5,10, 30 day MA's in the summer of 2020. But the persistence forced me to change perspective and use much longer moving averages to reflect the insanity that is going on.
And again, that which cannot go on forever, won't!
Update:
Yields and Stuff.
30 year yield back in the channel. And we have had the largest yield % increase in 30 year yields over the last year compared to the last 40 or so. This is the real danger in the market. Rising yields from an historic millennial low can in itself act as a gamma squeeze. Duration risk from bonds bought at lower yields will be a strain on bond prices. Which in turn, will strain yields, which will strain prices...see what I am getting at? Yet another overleveraged feedback loop that they cannot possibly control.
If overall debt loads were at a manageable level (they are not!) then this might not be a huge problem. But debts loads are off the charts. We all "know", in fact we all absolutely know, that debts will NEVER, EVER be repaid! We can hold that truth to be self-evident, yet we cannot see the endgame.
That which cannot go on forever....won't!
And that "won't" is probably very near.
I like my count on prices. It was a tricky count, but that's why you come to this blog.
Germany. NEGATIVE RATES! Oh my! Yes, ho hum right? 50 years from now they will be saying we were all insane....mass delusion. Chart is looking to escape the down channel. Bullish basing period.Update:
One possible way to label the squiggle count. We are either very close to absolute wave C peak or merely wave (i) of [v] of C.
"Squiggle" chart indeed. Wilshire shot up over 2000 points in about 4 days.
The Wilshire 5000 made a new all-time high today as was suspected. The close above the 50% wave relationship markers could indicate that prices will run toward a very tight Fibonacci 1.618 and .618 dual relationship that resides at a tight range centering around 42,450.
However, we have a perfect potential non-confirmation event right here at these prices. The DJIA has not made a new high. So right about here is an ideal spot for the Wilshire to peak.