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Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 February 2021


The best wave count interpretation is that we are trying to confirm the top of wave (iii) of [v] of C of (B) - or if you prefer wave (iii) of [v] of 5 of (5).  The top of (iii) may have occurred and today's new intraday high was a wave b of (iv). A pullback tomorrow would perhaps finish off wave (iv) in an expanded flat. Then wave (v) would carry higher.

Prices seem to be gravitating toward the strong Fibonacci cluster identified at around 42,450 +35, -10. Today's Wilshire high of 41,930 is just a mere 1.2% from our Fibonacci target range.

We can also label the move since March 2020 as thus. They both would count correct.
Last night's CPCE and CPC data. Its not just equities that are in a historic run.  Another ho-hum .39 print last night on the CPCE. The 30 day moving average has clearly flattened and the 10 day is oscillating between "extreme complacency" and "historic gamma squeeze".  The 180 day MA has practically reached the "extreme complacency" line.

In my estimation, when these long term moving averages combine even tighter, we will be nearing a historic turning event. Simply put, when the gamma runs out of juice, the market will reverse.
Running out of squiggles on junk.

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