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Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 March 2021

I'll just list the top counts.  They all pretty much point to the same thing: we are either in the final wave(s) up or the Wilshire 5000 has peaked and is on the far end of a multi-week rollover. Lets start with that count:

COUNT 1: "ROLLOVER" and waning momentum (truncated) top.

Squiggles for the above would be approximately so:

COUNT(s) 2 AND (3):  Triangle forming and a thrust to new highs will come. There are 2 variations of this but they point to the same thing.

The surge since March 2020 both counts as a final impulse to an all-time Grand Supercycle peak and it also counts well as an A-B-C "irregular top" as Elliott himself called it. A bullshit fake (B) wave high. 

I am fine with either for now.


COUNT 4: The most aggressive bullish count, that the market is actually in wave 5 of (5) of [5] and this count allows for much higher prices. But of course I could just stretch counts 2 and 3 even if much higher prices come. 

So in the end, they all point to the same ending.  

I like to keep an eye on this chart because the trendlines probably mean something.
Bonds
VIX
INDU
This is probably the best count at the moment for the Industrials which implies the final high is not in yet. This also implies that the Wilshire will "hold up" or make a higher high to fulfill the chart below.


Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 March 2021

SOCIAL MOOD COMMENTARY

I read the perfect blog post that exactly captures how I view things at this stage of social mood.  His post is about the lying liars and how they know we know they are lying to us about everything.  Yet their contempt for the "normals" is great and they continue the "Ponzi Scheme of Lies". And to be fair, I found his blog via the Zero Hedge post where it was featured.

Yes I like that description. The Ponzi Scheme of Lies about sums it all up. 

Quote:

"Everywhere I look I see...doing their best to convince us of the most absurd lies to hide the rank incompetence at every level of our society’s power structure.

And it doesn’t matter what issue we’re discussing: masks, vaccines, election fraud, racism, Joe Biden’s health, climate change, the sovereign bond markets, lockdowns."

Unquote.

I (Daneric) figure I'd add some more to the "Big Lie" list: evolution, Big Bang Theory (origin of the Universe and the T.V. Show), dinosaurs, fossil fuels, electric cars, fitness, cholesterol, ANTIFA, BLM, Trump supporters, critical race theory, border security, saturated fats, strength training, origin of the China virus, true nature of socialism and its destructive power...you get the idea.

In reality its not just the endless lies to our faces, its the outright hypocrisy and they just don't care and that makes them sociopaths. They flaunt the hypocrisy and then like the dead parrot sketch, tell you with a straight face  a) they didn't do what they did... b) shut up and eat cake...  c) Shut up and eat cake or I'll ruin you financially and/or have you locked up and feed you to a BLM prison mob on some trumped up bullshit. 

Damn. Them. All. To. Hell.

I'll post a "hypocrisy" post probably this weekend that will tie into the Ponzi Scheme of Lies theme.

COUNTS

Updated possible squiggles. 



Monday, March 29, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 March 2021

The two Wilshire daily counts below about sums up the best count situation. They both practically say the same thing.  Chart 1 is a "final impulse" to a historic Grand Supercycle top. Chart 2 says the same thing except its a "false top" - a fake social mood top - in the construct of an A-B-C.  Regardless there are characteristics of both so if it pans out it won't matter anyway.



THE IMMEDIATE BEARISH COUNT 
Of course officially, the Wilshire has not bested its brief intraday high of February 16th. That is over 5 weeks.  We are awaiting a resolution one way or another.

The chart below is perhaps the "rolling over" chart in which a HUGE downside surprise - rather than upside - is coming.  Its a "double top" situation so far but we have yet to have a clear impulse move lower. 
And this would be the squiggle count of the above. More evidence of a possible major market transition.

Friday's CPCE seems to be turning upwards in all the moving averages reflecting waning mood. In other words, the market may very well be "rolling over" and the CPCE turning upwards is representative of that. 
The VIX is exhausted. That may soon change again.
Dollar chart looks bullish.
30 year prices in bonds. Wow, quite a move.
I can still see the 10 year yield working its way to 1.95 - 2.00 range. Remember the discussions of "duration risk" last summer when I showed yields below the 40 year channel line and that a rise back above will likely be bad? Well here we are so far.
There is nothing on this monthly chart technically speaking that looks bearish or offers resistance to stop the halt in rise over the next many months or so. Sure there will be bounces up and down, but when you hit the bottom they say there is only one way left to go (up).

Already a 233% increase in yields. Wow.
BONUS CHART SILVER
Update to the Silver chart shown a little while back. If its going to rally, the time would be soon.  The *potential* is there for an upside surprise.

And who knows, if stocks crash and bonds crash, then the dollar and perhaps *silver* (and maybe not so much gold this time around) may get a huge bid.







Friday, March 26, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 March 2021

Update:

Do a search of "Daneric" (which has always been a unique name). Google and Microsoft have colluded to bury me.  I was once the top search object. Now I am erased....

ORIGINAL POST

Well, you can't find my blog anymore on the web via a simple search of  "Elliott Wave(s)", no matter what "search engine" you try. I am officially an "unblog". They (the "Feds" via corporates whores - Microsoft, Google - ) purposely buried me as I must be over the target as concerned with my commentary since the fake, STOLEN election.

The cancel culture is real even to a small guy like me. I suspect everyone  that has a link on "Zero hedge" is a target. 

Fuck you corrupt FBI, DOJ, CIA, DEA and all the other shit agencies that think your bigger than "We the People". I have Jesus Christ my Lord and Savior on my side, I do not worry!

I do more to protect my country than most of you traitorous pussies with a hard on for harassing private citizens. Yet still, there are a LOT of good people in the FBI, DOJ, CIA and DEA yet they are afraid of speaking up! Well the time is NOW! Don't let them harass another citizen for political purposes!

THE COUNTS

Either or works. 5 waves to an all-time high or the ultimate bullshit fake top we ever saw? They both work.


Thursday, March 25, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 March 2021

At the moment, there is not much clarity to how the following week(s)/month might play out in Elliott Wave terms.  In a "Grand Supercycle" scale of things (200+ years), we have strong indications that things are coming to an end. The proposed end point also marks the end of a proposed "Supercycle", "Cycle", and "Primary" wave degree.  We even propose we have nailed down more or less that this is a final "Intermediate" wave degree. For the most part, these are very large and long term wave structures. But Intermediate is not so much. And the lesser degree of "Minor" is lower still. 

My count has us trying to nail down the lower "Minor" degree. That is where we have been at for about the last few months. We count squiggles and add them every day to produce an overall count. When each day's squiggles add up to something, I try and propose possible counts. That is about where we are.

So today I add a small variation. The market has been treading sideways since December more or less. 

The Wilshire peaked intraday in February and failed a new high in March. When that occurs in a proposed fourth wave position (and fails), the market can take an alternate route and "triangulate" its way higher.  In other words since the "direct assault" on a new peak in March failed, it elects to chew through (selling) prices until it can achieve its goal of a new high. A triangle pattern would also show alternation with wave [ii] of 5 therefore it fulfills a strong guideline that wave two and four corrections within the same five wave impulse degree structure do not have the same corrective patterns. 

This is also probably how social mood works in reality. Your mood churns sideways through after having a new peak and it takes a while to achieve a breakout from that previous peak. Elliott wave triangles are simply a reflection of life.

So perhaps we are treading sideways in an effort to make  a new peak even if its a "short-lived" exhaustion-type peak with minimal breakout.

So we have a *potential" pattern. We have "deal-breakers" as a result. Simply put, if the potential triangle pattern fails, then our theory as such also fails and its generally a bearish outcome.


Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 March 2021

This is an elegant count. The truncation is merely a few points. This count implies the all-time intraday high was in mid Febraury.




Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 March 2021

Tesla. If this chart proves correct and wave (c) of [ii] up is coming, then I suppose the overall market would support such a move. 

That's all I got tonight. All the Wilshire counts have been beaten to death over the last several months so no need to update, I have nothing new.





Monday, March 22, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 March 2021

The Wilshire topped in absolute intraday price in mid February. Yes it has come within spitting distance of reaching yet a new all-time intraday high recently but so far it has "officially" not.

So what can I say about my main Wilshire 5000 index that I use for overall wave counts and structures and has not topped again in almost 5 weeks (February 16th) ? When at the same time the DJIA and even the S&P 500 has topped again and again? 

Its a hard narrative. It may just well be another sign that the market is transitioning into something different (a new bear market). I'm not going to stamp my feet one way or another. I suggested over a month ago this thing (Wilshire 5000) may have topped and you know what? I technically may have been correct.

So we'll see. In the meantime we have some generalized count options but its a crosswinds situation.

The NYSE supports the above count.

The VIX lowest close in over a year. Limp. People are "tired". A lazy VIX plumbing lower lows represents this spent emotion.  Lockdowns. Riots. Cult of Covid and the Mask. We are tired. How long will it last? Will people get pissed off soon? Is social mood just taking a much needed breather?
And yes, the most bullish count supposes that the market will get crazier even still over the next few months. I don't discount this at all. Afterall, a 233 year rise ending with COVID 19 lockdowns doesn't make for a very "bullish" Grand Supercycle top. 

"Partying Like its 1999" does make a bullish Grand Supercycle top even if the "party" is a merely an "echo" of the true social mood peak of 1999.

I actually hope we go higher for this Spring/Summer. It would blunt, for the time being, the totalitarians that wish to take us all down to the depths of hell.

Biden really sucks as a President. Everyone knows it. He insulted Putin for why? Fucking Russia has as many nukes as we do, do we really need to insult and humiliate Putin for no good reason? Do I have to worry a nuke is coming over the horizon and who will order the counter-launch in response? Fucking Biden has no clue what's going on and has no business being the President and no business being the Commander in Chief.

And everyone with any lick of common sense knows he has dementia that is rapidly advancing and that he was massively, fraudulently "elected". Its a fucking crime and a travesty. 

And just look at the border and 15,000 kids locked in dirty, overcrowded Covid cages.










Thursday, March 18, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 March 2021

Did we have a truncated top? That is the question and only time will tell. But as I suggested 2 days agao, I would not be surprised if the Wilshire failed to make a new high. 

VIX - almost closed the gap...is it enough? Perhaps.
There are plenty of variations that take us to a new high and I am sure you can figure them out. I'm just not feeling it though today so I'll leave it at that.

The count below would work as a count if the "high" was actually in February. In any case, the market looks tired. I could just as well call it "truncated" as in the count above. It doesn't much matter. We are trying to "fine tune" a Fibonacci 233 year rise...so our potential margin of error is understandable.




Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 March 2021

COMMENTARY, (SOCIAL MOOD, ETC)

I'll start out with a little social mood commentary. The left, having stolen the election which has been a long-standing social mood tradition outcome since the Tammany Hall era of the 1800's, are so emboldened that they figured they would simply reenact the Obama years of open borders, endless immigration, free spending, etc.  

But the social mood response is not the same since the "Age of Covid" and the "Cult of the Mask". 

You see, all the liberal "Karens" and those who harass people in public who don't wear the mask "over the nose" are also now not happy with TEAM BIDEN sending Central and South Americans freely over the border to the tune of having some 13,000+ kids in cages and all the associated human baggage spreading Covid everywhere. 

The old ways simply don't fly anymore and the "elite" and politicians are always the last to gain a clue.  That is the way social mood trends works. "Government" (hence politicians) is always a step behind the curve in social mood. Why? Because "government" is a long-festering conglomeration of social mood trends and is always at the end. In other words, if "government" endorses a trend in mood (good or bad) you can bet that the mood in question has already peaked or troughed and has already turned opposite!

I cannot stress that point above enough, as it is a solid basis of social mood trends! If the government finally gets around to the point of view to tell you to do something, you can guarantee that doing the very opposite will be in your best interest! That's just the way it works. That's just the way bureaucracies of any kind works.

Simply put, social mood has changed very negatively and its a time bomb. The old bullshit elite rolling over Americans of all political persuasions will get a rude awakening. The liberal "Karens" who cheered on endless immigration in years past (because they "perceived" that they were not affected at the time) are now decrying the stopping of the building the wall!  The left has miscalculated and even Biden is now begging that the immigrants to stay away.

I give Trump credit. His instinct was to generally stay ahead of the social mood curve, which was always his gift as a politician.  He was always somewhat of a contrarian and still is. Right or wrong, he ended his presidency at a social mood high and he will not suffer in the long run as a result. That's just the way it works. 

He has predicted that the 401k's and pensions will collapse under Biden and I have a hard time to argue that he will not be correct in the long run. The "long run" need only be 1 -2 years. If 401k's take a 50% haircut in 2 years what do you think the Karens and "liberal" middle/upper class of this world will think then? Will Team Biden and Kamala be revered or despised? 

I could go on and on, but you get my point(s) and I'll leave things here for now at that. The bottom line is that social mood trends affect everything...economically, politically, culturally and spiritually.

Social mood moves first irrespective of actual events, trends to the mood develop, results and event outcomes of the mood trends happen at all degree. That is Elliott Wave Theory in a nutshell.

SOCIAL MOOD SHIFTS FIRST ---> PERCEPTIONS OF EVENTS THAT OCCUR IS BASED ON SOCIAL MOOD.

See the simple reversal of what "most" people would naturally think? (Most people think events happen first and mood is the result. FALSE! Elliott wave theory states the opposite!)

Mood shifts first (stock market is the near real-time "meter"), normal "events" happen, yet our PERCEPTION (mood) of the event is based on the current mood at the time.

In other words if Reagan was elected in 1976....he would be a 1 term president who would be perceived to be one of the worst Presidents of all time. But he wasn't. He was elected in 1980 in a rising soical mood trend and his Presidency ended with a social mood rising tide in 1988. Hence, his Presidency ended at a significant social mood upturn and he is remembered as such in a positive light.

Yes its that simple.

And you can also say that Ronald Reagan wasn't elected in 1976 because he didn't fit the social mood at the time. Jimmy Carter was. Carter reflected our social mood and he was elected. And we tired of him by 1980. He was the product of social mood and he was desposed of because of social mood. Not the other way around.

Get it? Social mood move first, events happen, perception of events is the result of social mood trends at the time.  Apply that principle to everything in your life and you will have freed yourself of guilt and anxiety on why things happen the way they do.

Yet more importantly, you can perhaps predict social mood trends to come based on Elliott Waves. The Stock market is our "speedometer". Our roadmap. 

That's why you can't help but peek at this blog even if you hate my supposed and perceived "ideology"! (you only hate it because of social mood trends and your perception to such)

COUNTS

Triangle developing?

Preferred count is that this is a bullshit (B) wave.
The other count is 5 of (5) to infinity.,..its the same thing. A peak for all-time's sake.


Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 March 2021

I'm just going to throw a bunch of charts up tonight. No overarching theme other than we are near. Wilshire target of 42,485 is the theme if we make a new high.

Not yet a new high. I'm assuming it does, but would not surprise me if it didn't. That's how things work generally. When everyone most expects something, it fails to happen. 

VIX. Best closing low in over a year.
Another way to count things. Biden social mood popularity occurred near the high as of now.
Composite. Internal distortions moving up again as prices go higher. Its a fucked up market.
Yesterday's CPCE. Another very low print. It may be that the algo's keep printing lower but they are not getting the expected "juice" out of it. In other words, the juice is flowing but prices are waning. Kind of like how Quantitative Easing has been operating for the past 10 years. They keep injecting but with diminishing returns. Its scary actually. Because when it all pops for good it may not be a spectacular top...it might just kind of limp up for a bit, then shug (I made that word up) downward in price for a bit, and then market prices just smash lower when everyone is sleeping in a stupor....
Your junk looks tired. LOL.
Gimme some kudo's for yields. Stocks forever keep making new highs but we probably nailed yields. I'm looking at resistance at 1.95%ish....maybe a pop to 2% before a big move the other way. This will probably occur with a crashing market in some form or fashion.
Indu count is a big mess.  I'll put it this way: Even if waves continue going up for 4 -6 months and the pattern "resolved" higher in a better fashion here is the bottom line that would not change: The last 4+ months count as a mess and higher prices would not clarify things.

And that implies that I might just have the correct count below:




Monday, March 15, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 March 2021

UPDATE

Vix. In the gap and almost closed.  The "state of agitation" gauge needs a breather sub 20 perhaps. It probably won't last too long. People are weary. The stolen election, the anti-liberty lockdowns, the threat of government/corporate/media, etc. left wing violence against normal Americans. 

Obey or else! That is clearly the message our little Che overlords are sending us. Normal Americans don't know how to react quite yet. We tried legitimate protesting to have our voices heard but it now seems MAGA is outlawed.  The "Reichstag Fire" is something they won't let go because it fits their agenda of oppressing (and literally locking up) any Trump voters which is probably some 80+ million.

People need a breather. But I suspect it won't last long. 

And don't get me started on the "Cult of the Mask". Its all so bizarre and evil. The purposeful killing of Americans by denying them simple drugs to counteract a virus (HCQ, Ivermectin). The purposeful killing of old people by spreading COVID in the old age homes. The (soon-to-be) forced experimental vaccinations that has been linked to now over 1,400 deaths via the VARES site.

And I'll just throw in the slaying of babies and harvesting their parts for the promises of immortality. Evil.

AND ALL THIS AT AN ALL-TIME MARKET HIGH! Imagine what a real social mood downturn will look like!

NYSE
Does the NASDAQ require a new high? It can count either way.

ORIGINAL POST

The count(s) continued; the odd spike to pink (iii) is not matched by the SPX so I am not sure why the Wilshire printed that spike last week. But it remains, therefore we'll count it as such.

I'm really watching this Fib relationship at 42,485 very closely. All-time high closing price for the Wilshire 5000.
Otherwise we can count using the alternate version below which says the same thing. The RSI patterns fits the count below nicely. Peak at 3, wane at [v] of 5.
Daily RSI matches the profile of a 5 wave move. Again, peak at 3, wane at 5...
I'll have more later.