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Thursday, March 25, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 March 2021

At the moment, there is not much clarity to how the following week(s)/month might play out in Elliott Wave terms.  In a "Grand Supercycle" scale of things (200+ years), we have strong indications that things are coming to an end. The proposed end point also marks the end of a proposed "Supercycle", "Cycle", and "Primary" wave degree.  We even propose we have nailed down more or less that this is a final "Intermediate" wave degree. For the most part, these are very large and long term wave structures. But Intermediate is not so much. And the lesser degree of "Minor" is lower still. 

My count has us trying to nail down the lower "Minor" degree. That is where we have been at for about the last few months. We count squiggles and add them every day to produce an overall count. When each day's squiggles add up to something, I try and propose possible counts. That is about where we are.

So today I add a small variation. The market has been treading sideways since December more or less. 

The Wilshire peaked intraday in February and failed a new high in March. When that occurs in a proposed fourth wave position (and fails), the market can take an alternate route and "triangulate" its way higher.  In other words since the "direct assault" on a new peak in March failed, it elects to chew through (selling) prices until it can achieve its goal of a new high. A triangle pattern would also show alternation with wave [ii] of 5 therefore it fulfills a strong guideline that wave two and four corrections within the same five wave impulse degree structure do not have the same corrective patterns. 

This is also probably how social mood works in reality. Your mood churns sideways through after having a new peak and it takes a while to achieve a breakout from that previous peak. Elliott wave triangles are simply a reflection of life.

So perhaps we are treading sideways in an effort to make  a new peak even if its a "short-lived" exhaustion-type peak with minimal breakout.

So we have a *potential" pattern. We have "deal-breakers" as a result. Simply put, if the potential triangle pattern fails, then our theory as such also fails and its generally a bearish outcome.

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