Custom Search

Monday, March 29, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 March 2021

The two Wilshire daily counts below about sums up the best count situation. They both practically say the same thing.  Chart 1 is a "final impulse" to a historic Grand Supercycle top. Chart 2 says the same thing except its a "false top" - a fake social mood top - in the construct of an A-B-C.  Regardless there are characteristics of both so if it pans out it won't matter anyway.



THE IMMEDIATE BEARISH COUNT 
Of course officially, the Wilshire has not bested its brief intraday high of February 16th. That is over 5 weeks.  We are awaiting a resolution one way or another.

The chart below is perhaps the "rolling over" chart in which a HUGE downside surprise - rather than upside - is coming.  Its a "double top" situation so far but we have yet to have a clear impulse move lower. 
And this would be the squiggle count of the above. More evidence of a possible major market transition.

Friday's CPCE seems to be turning upwards in all the moving averages reflecting waning mood. In other words, the market may very well be "rolling over" and the CPCE turning upwards is representative of that. 
The VIX is exhausted. That may soon change again.
Dollar chart looks bullish.
30 year prices in bonds. Wow, quite a move.
I can still see the 10 year yield working its way to 1.95 - 2.00 range. Remember the discussions of "duration risk" last summer when I showed yields below the 40 year channel line and that a rise back above will likely be bad? Well here we are so far.
There is nothing on this monthly chart technically speaking that looks bearish or offers resistance to stop the halt in rise over the next many months or so. Sure there will be bounces up and down, but when you hit the bottom they say there is only one way left to go (up).

Already a 233% increase in yields. Wow.
BONUS CHART SILVER
Update to the Silver chart shown a little while back. If its going to rally, the time would be soon.  The *potential* is there for an upside surprise.

And who knows, if stocks crash and bonds crash, then the dollar and perhaps *silver* (and maybe not so much gold this time around) may get a huge bid.







blog comments powered by Disqus