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Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 March 2021

I'll just list the top counts.  They all pretty much point to the same thing: we are either in the final wave(s) up or the Wilshire 5000 has peaked and is on the far end of a multi-week rollover. Lets start with that count:

COUNT 1: "ROLLOVER" and waning momentum (truncated) top.

Squiggles for the above would be approximately so:

COUNT(s) 2 AND (3):  Triangle forming and a thrust to new highs will come. There are 2 variations of this but they point to the same thing.

The surge since March 2020 both counts as a final impulse to an all-time Grand Supercycle peak and it also counts well as an A-B-C "irregular top" as Elliott himself called it. A bullshit fake (B) wave high. 

I am fine with either for now.


COUNT 4: The most aggressive bullish count, that the market is actually in wave 5 of (5) of [5] and this count allows for much higher prices. But of course I could just stretch counts 2 and 3 even if much higher prices come. 

So in the end, they all point to the same ending.  

I like to keep an eye on this chart because the trendlines probably mean something.
Bonds
VIX
INDU
This is probably the best count at the moment for the Industrials which implies the final high is not in yet. This also implies that the Wilshire will "hold up" or make a higher high to fulfill the chart below.


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