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Friday, April 16, 2021

Please click on my links to the LEFT and click on Elliott Wave International and become a FREE CLUB MEMBER.  That way if you decide to buy one of EWI's products I get a small commission for having signed you up. You really do get a lot of good free stuff. I get $3 per club member signup as I am an affiliate of EWI.

Counts

The Wilshire 5000 monthly, weekly, daily, and hourly are all into "overbought" territory.

It seems to be since there is no resistance, prices will run to the upper wedge line.  The immediate squiggle count supports this. This suggests a pop up on Monday. 




Thursday, April 15, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 April 2021

PEAK MANIA

I could go on and on about how insane things have become with regards to the current financial mania that has gripped the world. I could talk about the proliferation of SPACS - open ended checks. I could talk about digital currency mania where the value of a bitcoin has gone up a gazillion % since its inception.  I could remind those who push it that currencies are not supposed to go a bazillion % as a matter of being a currency. How can we possibly buy and sell things in Bitcoin if we think its inflation (or deflation) will render our purchase silly just a month down the road?

I could talk about the newest craze of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) or whatever the hell it is. I suppose its like Bitcoin. Regardless you cannot even "see" your investment. Its in the computer or something or you get a nice framed certificate of whatever. Yet people think this is just dandy.  What the hell are you going to physically accomplish by buying a tweet for $2.9M?  I mean I guess charity (a lot of fraud in charities anyway) is what its supposed to buy, but really are the buyers hoping to flip the buy and double their money down the road?

What next? Will Jack Dorsey fart in a glass jar and sell that for $3.9M? Or pledge the proceeds to charity? 

The mania must surely be near the top. 

I could talk about record amounts of debt of all kinds. You know the story. Or margin debt. Just some random graph I googled on the internet. Can you see the clear Elliott waves?  I added some wave markers just in case!


I could rant about Covid madness particularly the vaccines but Karl Denninger does it better so I'll just link.  Its another example of the madness all around us. Line up like a guinea pig for your shot!


Part 2 here. 

Here is another good Covid online source.


Again with the ability to find out on your own to make informed decisions via the internet, people are mostly sheeple and refuse to look.  One woman I know might have Covid but every suggestion I make is shot down with conviction for whatever reason.  Well, my final response was "Well, if your not going to research anything and don't want to consider anything, then I hope you don't choke to death, good luck." (No I actually didn't say it quite that blunt, but yeah I was blunt.)

I just think its all sheer madness. 

I know of another woman who was pressured into getting a shot because she is a health care worker and got the J&J just before they shut it down and she is so pissed at herself and regrets it deeply even though it was last week. I truly hope she is fine in the long run but at least she came to her senses.

She realized this one little simple thing; you cannot "undo" the shot.

You can be a drunk and get sober. You can be a crackhead and get sober. Your body might even repair itself back to a "normal state". But the shot? Again good luck. I hope the 23% and counting of the country who are fully "vaccinated"  don't start getting terrible afflictions come this October. Terrible over-reactions to either the constantly mutating Covid or even a common cold. 

My prediction is that the vaccination rate for the country will top off at a Fibonacci 38.2%. Why? Because the more jabs they give, the more bad things will come out and the more people will wonder what the hell they were thinking. 

Reports today that people are dying of Covid anyway even after being vaccinated will come out more and more.

I still have hope people will wake up to the tyranny that is all around us. I am confident they will.

Nah, they won't and the crap is going to hit the fan.

COUNTS

Everything is hitting on all cylinders for the Primary count. It appears prices want to run toward the upper wedgeline. There is no resistance left anywhere in the market so I don't see why not. The Great Mania must peak!
Squiggles
Ok. Here is the main reason I always wanted to switch my wave degrees one degree higher. Its the brilliant Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International (EWI) DJIA/PPI chart. I can't beat this so I show it in fair use and I encourage you to become a FREE EWI Club Member. 

So therefore please click on my links to the LEFT and click on EWI and become a FREE CLUB MEMBER.  That way if you decide to buy one of EWI's products I get a small commission for having signed you up. You really DO get a lot of good free stuff, and he doesn't bait and switch or any of that BS. Its an old-time free membership and not any hokey-pokey. So do it and browse around. I get $3 per club member signup as I am an affiliate of EWI.

I added the arcs of social mood in blue, green and pink but the underlying count is all his.

You can see we are at a cycle wave V since the 2009 low which makes perfect sense.


My monthly chart, I felt like populating the count some more. I just painted as it seems to count best. I usually don't detail the rise in the 1980's and 90's but I took a stab at it because it was empty. I wish Stockcharts had data that went back further.

Have a safe night all!

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 April 2021

Ok, things have been marching along nicely for the revamped counts this week. Again, all charts seem to be aligned in about the same spot in the count. Best guess is that today's peak was Minute wave [iii] of 3 of (5) and that the pullback is the beginning of a corrective wave [iv] of 3 of (5). Next best guess is that today's peak was the top of 3 of (5) itself and today's pullback was the beginning wave of forming Minor 4 itself. 

However it would look nice if the market formed a small Minute [iv], peaked again at [v] of 3 first. So we will go with that premise for now. 

It may not overthrow its "wedge" but it is overthrowing the Cycle wave uppermost channel line.
NYSE
Composite getting close to a new all-time high which the count predicts. Again, perhaps today was peak of [iii] of 5 of (5) which most charts seem to suggest.
DJIA. The most goofiest chart. 
I took yet another crack at its ugly squiggles...again, the theme being its probably looking for the top of [iii] then 3 itself. So the charts have all married back up and that is a normal thing in a peaking process. This is another reason to think this is Minor 3 of (5). 

Minor 3 is where they would be best re-aligned with each other. Then later when Minor 4 and 5 plays out, they may diverge a bit again.
CPCE. Yeah still nailed down. Those aren't your short term, 3, 5, and 10 day moving averages. Those are 10, 30, 90 and 180 Day!  This ain't your grandfather's CPCE!
Oh, and here is the 3,5, 10, and 30. Just pure gamma baby.
Bonus chart of the NYSE.  The NYSE alt count has a "classic" ending diagonal triangle wedge with overlapping waves 4 and 1. It touched the top line today and fell back. This pattern really doesn't work on anything else but it caught my eye and the (3) and (4) actually fit better on this chart rather than the above. 

I can't assume the "peak" is not in. It very well may be. Buts its an alternate count all the same.

 





Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 April 2021

I have been consolidating and updating all my usual charts based on the now preferred primary count which I outlined in yesterday's post. Once I applied the same wave formations to many other chart types, I was amazed at how things look now on almost each chart.  Even better, they are all now "aligned" with each other in the same wave 3 of (5).  This is very much preferable. After many months of scattershot meanderings of all the various indices, they have now all seemingly realigned in a clear manner.  

Lets start with the Wilshire charts.

I made a new 30 minute squiggle. Best count is that we are looking and then trying to confirm the top of Minor 3 of (5):

I accidentally left "Primary Count" on my wedge chart in yesterday's post. Its not a count per se, its just a postulation that everything the market is doing seems to be working in a giant ending diagonal triangle (EDT) wedge that has been "stretched" due to the insane leverage and volume being deployed since March 2020. 

So, instead of the usual example - shown on chart - produced without leverage which has an "A-B-C" count and look and overlapping waves (1) and (4) we get actual Wilshire on the left.

The RSI pattern on the Wilshire Daily (along with NYSE breadth thrust chart below) actually supports the idea of this count very much.  In other words, peak RSI occurred not in a subwave three of three where it typically does but at the top of a big wave one (1) which is more indicative of an ending diagonal wedge.  And wave (3) and (5) get weaker and weaker in a "classic" wedge (shown on right) and the actual current RSI pattern of the proposed count matches that what we might expect of a huge Fibonacci 13 month ending diagonal triangle. 

In other words, I postulate that the market is actually in a huge EDT for the final wave of Grand Supercycle [III], but the mandatory wave (1) and (4) price overlap is simply elongated and doesn't exist due to the historic leverage in this market. Yet the RSI pattern fits the example on the right. And the current wedge pattern is still discernable on the Wilshire. 

And, finally, the typical "A-B-C" count of a "classic" EDT wedge as shown in the example actually translates to the real Wilshire shown on the left. Making "impulse" patterns since 2020 is driving people crazy because the substructure of each major subwave is scattershot (just like in a "classic" EDT). Yet the chart below explains and solves all those problems.

Conclusion?: This is a dangerous market because extremely leveraged, wedge-shaped ending diagonal triangles of this magnitude implicates absolute exhaustion and collapse will follow.

I present, you make up your own mind. The market is trying to always fool us because there are countless technicians looking to glean an edge. A "classic" wedge is so easy to spot in wouldn't follow what people would expect, therefore it isn't occurring (and the leverage doesn't let it occur)

Revamped NYSE, DJIA, COMPOSITE counts etc.
Hey look at Tesla give some credit here! We got the pop expected at least toward (c).
NYSE Breath Thrust Chart. You can clearly see internals are waning.  Tremendous explosion off the 2020 low. Then 2 significant breadth thrust "events" with a significant negative event sandwiched in between.  Wave (3) managed to break over the upper event red line at 61.5 but not much since on waning overall volume (see Wilshire weekly chart above) and waning NYSE internal measures as shown on the NYSE chart above.

Conclusion: The counts look good.
10 year yield. When that high RSI registered I immediately had noted that it was not likely the high in prices...that has panned out so far. Its a typical RSI spike pattern that is embedded in a subwave three of three of some sort.


Monday, April 12, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 April 2021

UPDATE

A chart to ponder. Is the market in a disguised ending diagonal triangle but not in a classic shape to to distortions from extreme leverage? 


Also CPCE which has enabled the extreme leverage.


ORIGINAL POST

BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

My Stockcharts account had become a complete disorganized mess. Part of the reason is because I like to record all my thoughts in a chart and refer back or just post them to give the reader their own ideas. These are the charts I post and I know it can be confusing when I throw wave structures all over the place and variations upon variations.  Showing these variations has been fun and I'm not likely to stop completely but I do need to consolidate a bit and be a bit more consistent, if only for myself. In my mind though, things are fairly clear.

So I did a radical thing today and deleted outright most of my Wilshire charts (in which there was upwards of 20)In doing so I realized there was a subliminal purpose. First, showing the false (B) wave count - with Feb 2020 being the "orthodox" wave high for Grand Supercycle [III] - no longer serves its purpose as it was largely based on a Fibonacci relationship to Wilshire 42,440 or so. The market has blown through that. Additionally the VIX has finally collapse sub-20 to a more historical low. So far it bottomed at 16.20 since the panic last year. That is another reason the "false" top no longer probably makes sense. This is indeed a wave 5 mania and we are likely near the end. Yes, social mood is "rolling over" (for decades depending on what wave degree "arc" one is tracking) but its more satisfying keeping the big expanding triangle ending in March 2020 and having the rise since then as a final wave 5.

As Prechter likes to say, its "beautiful pictures". And I want to get back to that which I'll keep the sunset theme which is pleasing to my eye.

But what degree wave five?  I have decided to finally go with Robert Prechter's amazing DJIA/PPI count from 1789 or so and that count clearly shows a Cycle wave IV ending in 2009 (instead of the lower Primary degree). So that's another radical change I have decided to undertake in which I have hinted plenty in the past I would do but too lazy to change my charts. So it made sense to do it now.  The important thing to remember is that is changes NOTHING as far as wave count(s) and how we have been putting the structures together and it doesn't change the overall time frame. I simply wanted to stop confusing things by counting that the rise since 2009 low makes more sense as a cycle wave rather than just Primary.  And it fits much better with the overall Grand Supercycle wave count for the past 233 years. 

So starting tonight I am down to four Wilshire charts.   I have Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly. And they all show the same count. I will make more "squiggle" charts and variations but that'll take some time and I am striving for a more consistent format. 

Finally there is a reason to start laser-focusing on the counts because we are likely nearing the GSIII top sooner rather than later. With "later" being only a matter of a few weeks/months at most.  As reported by Elliott Wave International, the Daily Sentiment Indicator (as reported by Sentiment Trader.com) 5 day moving average is now at 87.6% with the DSI reaching 90% on Friday and probably higher today. These are rare readings. Of course they could go higher still.

COUNTS

WILSHIRE MONTHLY

The degree of wave labeling is likely correct.  It makes sense that a "cycle" wave since 2009 has occurred and not merely a Primary.  And thus, it makes sense that a Supercycle degree has occurred since 1945 and not merely Cycle.

But the point of the chart is:

1.) The channel since the 2009 low has been reached at a wave [5] on insane volume that dwarfs anything in the past.  

2.)  Peak volume bars occur near the major tops. In 2000 and 2007 we had the same situation. From this outsized perspective they look downright puny but at the time in comparison to what had come before, they were not. Is the same occurring now? I think so, and on steroids!

3.)  Looking at the monthly can you discern a possible count since the 2020 low within proposed wave [5] of V?  Based on that (and the weekly) I've consolidate the count since the March 2020 low and you'll see it on the Weekly, Daily and Hourly.


WILSHIRE WEEKLY

WILSHIRE DAILY
WILSHIRE HOURLY

CONCLUSION:
It was time to clean out my charts and it was time to finally switch and remake them to the higher wave degree labeling that in my heart I always intended to do. It was also time to discard the false (B) wave count because the Fibonacci relationship that it was largely based on did not work out and the VIX finally collapsed well under 20.

Additionally the RSI patterns of the monthly, weekly, daily and hourly seem to all be aligning better with the count above.  One thing that is hard to hide is that the the peak RSI patterns usually occur in third waves as the Monthly and Weekly clearly show so far. The Daily does not work that well in that regard but because the proposed wave (1) was the "push" over the previous 2020 peak, it is understandable. We do have a nice peak at 3 of (1) of [5] so that works well. 

Also, I liken the proposed wave "three of three" virgin space where I show it on the Hourly. The virgin space is clear enough on the Monthly and Weekly. So I can't just ignore that its not the virgin space if it clearly looks like it. So at this point there is enough structure in place to put it there.

And finally I like to be able to discern the subwaves in the larger monthly and weekly charts for where subwaves (1) thru (4) are. Therefore it made sense to put waves (1), (2), (3), (4) where I have them because you can "see" them and you can "see" the virgin space.

So we'll go with the above. Which implies we are likely looking to confirm the price top of wave 3 of (5) of [5]. That's what makes the best sense right now.


Friday, April 9, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 April 2021

 Top count has this:

The next best count is this:
Which implies weekly overthrow which today ended above the uppermost channel line. This is something new happening. The beginning of the end perhaps.
JUNK