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Thursday, April 1, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 April 2021

This post is not going to rehash all the variations as I have done over the last couple of days. Rather lets focus on the "false" (B) wave top that the market is in a position to fulfill.

The long view of this proposed top looks like this:

So far, the proposed wave (B) has expanded a near Fibonacci 1.605 times the drop of wave (A) at today's close.  Today was a new closing high for the Wilshire 5000 but not yet a new intraday (hence all-time) high. At least not quite yet.

42,441 would be a near perfect Fibonacci 1.618. That price is within spitting distance of today's close. Indeed a positive open would fulfill it and make a new (required) Wilshire all-time high.

At first glance the structure doesn't support my theory of a small pop then collapse. But, looking harder, perhaps it is there all along. Perhaps the market has hid a triangle (as it likes to do nowadays because the obvious ones are too obvious.) 

This pathing proposes a "false" breakout of the "triangle" price retreat. Yet enough to make a new required all-time intraday high.
We have a valid wave count path to fulfill the ultimate Fibonacci near-perfect target of 42,441 (+ or - 44 points). This proposed path is likely a small pop at the open Friday Monday and then down, down, down. Tomorrow, Monday or Tuesday would be a crash scenario. Indeed, all next week the market may crash hard. 

But we'll see.  These potential Fibonacci "setups" must be focused on when they present themselves and at end of day, that is where we stand. No need to argue about it, we'll find out soon enough.

Potential count.
I have 2 variations. The first chart is the one I have been showing. The second shows the pretty much the same thing but the substructure's are organized in a different manner.

I actually like the new second chart. This gives silver the freedom to start a significant upswing for wave C from a fresh starting point. 

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