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Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 April 2021

I have been consolidating and updating all my usual charts based on the now preferred primary count which I outlined in yesterday's post. Once I applied the same wave formations to many other chart types, I was amazed at how things look now on almost each chart.  Even better, they are all now "aligned" with each other in the same wave 3 of (5).  This is very much preferable. After many months of scattershot meanderings of all the various indices, they have now all seemingly realigned in a clear manner.  

Lets start with the Wilshire charts.

I made a new 30 minute squiggle. Best count is that we are looking and then trying to confirm the top of Minor 3 of (5):

I accidentally left "Primary Count" on my wedge chart in yesterday's post. Its not a count per se, its just a postulation that everything the market is doing seems to be working in a giant ending diagonal triangle (EDT) wedge that has been "stretched" due to the insane leverage and volume being deployed since March 2020. 

So, instead of the usual example - shown on chart - produced without leverage which has an "A-B-C" count and look and overlapping waves (1) and (4) we get actual Wilshire on the left.

The RSI pattern on the Wilshire Daily (along with NYSE breadth thrust chart below) actually supports the idea of this count very much.  In other words, peak RSI occurred not in a subwave three of three where it typically does but at the top of a big wave one (1) which is more indicative of an ending diagonal wedge.  And wave (3) and (5) get weaker and weaker in a "classic" wedge (shown on right) and the actual current RSI pattern of the proposed count matches that what we might expect of a huge Fibonacci 13 month ending diagonal triangle. 

In other words, I postulate that the market is actually in a huge EDT for the final wave of Grand Supercycle [III], but the mandatory wave (1) and (4) price overlap is simply elongated and doesn't exist due to the historic leverage in this market. Yet the RSI pattern fits the example on the right. And the current wedge pattern is still discernable on the Wilshire. 

And, finally, the typical "A-B-C" count of a "classic" EDT wedge as shown in the example actually translates to the real Wilshire shown on the left. Making "impulse" patterns since 2020 is driving people crazy because the substructure of each major subwave is scattershot (just like in a "classic" EDT). Yet the chart below explains and solves all those problems.

Conclusion?: This is a dangerous market because extremely leveraged, wedge-shaped ending diagonal triangles of this magnitude implicates absolute exhaustion and collapse will follow.

I present, you make up your own mind. The market is trying to always fool us because there are countless technicians looking to glean an edge. A "classic" wedge is so easy to spot in wouldn't follow what people would expect, therefore it isn't occurring (and the leverage doesn't let it occur)

Revamped NYSE, DJIA, COMPOSITE counts etc.
Hey look at Tesla give some credit here! We got the pop expected at least toward (c).
NYSE Breath Thrust Chart. You can clearly see internals are waning.  Tremendous explosion off the 2020 low. Then 2 significant breadth thrust "events" with a significant negative event sandwiched in between.  Wave (3) managed to break over the upper event red line at 61.5 but not much since on waning overall volume (see Wilshire weekly chart above) and waning NYSE internal measures as shown on the NYSE chart above.

Conclusion: The counts look good.
10 year yield. When that high RSI registered I immediately had noted that it was not likely the high in prices...that has panned out so far. Its a typical RSI spike pattern that is embedded in a subwave three of three of some sort.

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